Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Fed Hike Expectations Jump Higher

20 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Back from a disastrous snowboarding trip. 😬🏂

The Wetherspoon’s Inflation Indicator, In Which Our Intrepid Podcaster Buys A Round

09 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

£27. TWENTY SEVEN QUID.

Jay Powell: “The Labor Market is Extraordinary”.

08 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

517k new US jobs created last month. And LDI follow up.

Bonds ❤️ Central Banks

03 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Hikes from the Fed, ECB and BoE. Bond markets see record rallies. Risk loves it too. The end (of high interest rates) is nigh?

Bregret? Three Years After Brexit, How Did It Go?

31 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Bloomberg Economics analysis, and IMF forecasts.

Instantaneous Inflation - Back to Target but Next Week the Fed, BoE and ECB Will All Hike

27 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Jan Eeckhout paper from UPF Barcelona is worth a read.

Brazil 🇧🇷 and Argentina 🇦🇷 Talking About A Single Currency Zone

23 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And more on Japan, and ChatGPT.

🇯🇵 A Japan Special - YCC and Kuroda 🇯🇵

20 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

No change in YCC. Short sellers RIP 🪦

Debt Ceiling Self-Sabotage

20 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And some ‘best ever’ stats for you.

The Risk Rally Continues - Credit Loves the Good News Narrative

16 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And the 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan could be on the verge of something big.

Bluebirds>Black Swans. Hope for 2023?

12 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

What is the bond market narrative for the new year?

Season 9 of UJWOB: the end of the Negative Yielding Bond Era

06 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

🚨🚨🚨The last negative yielding bond turned positive yesterday!🚨🚨🚨

Uncle Jim’s 2023 Bond Market Outlook

09 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Better late than never. 😘

The End of Season 8 of UJWOB: The Powell Pivot?

05 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

But US wage growth shocked bond markets on Friday.

Alan Blinder: A Monetary & Fiscal History of the United States 1961-2021

02 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

An interview with the former Fed Vice Chair about his fascinating new book. Keynes, Kennedy, Friedman, Reagan, Bernanke, and Clinton v the Bond Vigila...

China 🇨🇳 Protests

28 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And government bond yields continue to fall. Also Ackman and the HKD.

The Fixed Income Everything Rally.

25 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And monetary policy nerds assemble at the Bank of England.

Paul the Octopus v Goldman Sachs

21 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

But mainly about credit and some bearish default forecasts from Deutsche Bank.

The Inflation Turning Point?

14 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And Twitter, Crypto, Saunders.

Midterms, Menu Costs, Crypto

10 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Best news for the GOP? Trump influence wanes. Worst news? He might take his revenge.

More US Yield Curve Inversion - and 🇺🇸 Jobs Growth Remains Solid

04 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

3 month/10 year curve is now negative

Halloween 🎃 and Gilts Are No Longer So Scary.

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

But mortgage rates aren’t really falling back in the UK.

What Does Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Winner, Call the UK’s Bond Spread?

21 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As officially named by Dario Perkins.

Four UK Chancellors In A Year. And US Core Inflation at 6.6%

14 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Trussonomics cancelled?

No Rest for Gilts: Another Big Selloff Despite New Help From Bank of England.

10 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And Ben Bernanke wins the Nobel Prize.

Lenin, Hemingway and Fitzgerald.

03 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Back to pre mini Budget levels in £ and long gilts. But the damage is done.

Margin Call: Extraordinary Dysfunction in the Gilt Market

28 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Real yields have moved from -2.25% to +2%!

Record Low for the £, and Gilts Collapse Again.

26 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Not going well for Trussonomics so far.

Season 8: OMG THE GILT MARKET

23 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Gilts are selling off. So is the £.

Politics Special Edition with Randeep Somel!

01 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Everything you need to know about global politics in 25 minutes.

Uncle Jim’s 2022 Summer Special ☀️

10 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Put down your John Grisham, pour yourself a pina colada and take a listen to this by the paddling pool.

The End of Uncle Jim’s Season 7: ECB hikes 50bps, and Trussanomics.

22 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Have lovely summer holidays. Stay frosty, and see you back here for Season 8.

Nationalisations, Rationing and a Cost of Living Crisis. Credit Spreads to Jump?

19 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

A JPM research note gives an incredibly bearish outlook, especially for Europe.

US Consumers Feel Bad. But the Fed will hike to 3.5% by Christmas.

15 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And cut thereafter…

US Treasury Yield Curve Now Properly Inverted

12 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

But because a US recession is ‘declared’ rather than measured, a soft-ish landing might break the bond market’s most beloved model. Also - the L...

Euro Nears Parity With the $. US Yield Curve Inverted As We Expect Weakening Labo(u)r Market.

08 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And a relief rally in the £ as disgraced PM Johnson is forced out.

Europe’s Natural Gas Problem: interview with Orlando Finzi

06 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Utilities analyst Orlando Finzi gives an update on the massive rise in gas prices, and the implications for inflation and growth.

🚨Narrative Change Alert🚨 From Inflation to Recession…

04 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And a 21% total return in one day from UK linkers.

The Worst Start to a Year for USTs Since Before George Washington!

01 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Also, property REITs underperforming a weak credit market.

China 🇨🇳 Reopening? But US 🇺🇸 Consumer is In Trouble…

29 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Also, Scotland’s 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence debate is back.

Yields Drop Despite Hawkish Fed Rhetoric: Hike Expectations Peaking?

24 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And credit is still very weak.

The Deutsche Bank Default Study: Ouch

17 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Jim Reid’s brilliant annual publication is out. Here’s the highlights.

Bondmageddon Continues.

15 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

5 days in a row of rising UST yields and credit is widening daily too.

New 40 Year 🇺🇸 CPI High - and Record Low in Consumer Sentiment…

13 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And did Google’s AI just become sentient?! 🤖

Workers’ Power Returning? The Fed Thinks That Trade Unions Hold The Key To Inflation.

10 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Also Lagarde and the ECB - rate hikes in July and September. Positive Rates Coming Back.

Jubilee Special. Credit is rallying off its May lows.

30 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Nottingham Forest 🌳: back where we belong.

What does $ Strength Mean for Emerging Markets

27 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And Forest head to Wembley! 🌳

Recession fears grow. Stocks down, bond yields down. Bank of England under attack.

20 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And Tesla gets expelled from the S&P’s ESG index. Elon Musk isn’t impressed.

Apocalypse Now. Andrew Bailey at the Treasury Select Committee

17 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Food price inflation a big worry for the Bank of England.

Crytpo-crash, Michael Owen, and breaking pegs.

12 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tether broke the buck today. Government bonds are rallying despite strong CPI.

Credit - No Hiding Place in Investment Grade Bonds. IG and HY both -9% this Year.

09 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And the $ rampage continues.

Bank of England’s Recession Forecast - and a bleak day for markets

06 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Treasuries, equities, the £ - all sell off. Only gilts buck the global trend.

Roundnumberitis: 3% US Treasury Bond Yields

03 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And 1% 10 year bunds too.

Season 7 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

25 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Real yields higher, credit weaker.

The End of Crazy Quarter in Bond World (and the end of Season 6)

31 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We end Q1 with inflation at career highs for many (most?) bond managers. Also goodbye to a couple of my bond salespeople - including one whose surname...

Negative Bond Yields - RIP? ☠️

28 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There’s not much left in the world of negative bond yields after Powell’s comments last week…

Happy 2nd Birthday to UJWOB

24 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Sunak isn’t going to like today’s headlines. All about the cost of living crisis and collapsing real incomes.

J-Pow to Bond Market: Drop Dead

22 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

A kick in the teeth for Treasuries as Powell talks of even more rate hikes from the Fed.

Bank of England’s Dovish Hike. Fed hikes for the first time since 2018.

18 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And Russia appears to have paid a $ bond coupon. No default yet.

Fed Hike Day (probably)

16 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And also Russia Default Day (probably).

Risk Assets Bounce and the € Recovers Too

10 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The market prices in one ECB rate hike for 2022 once more.

Oil Hits $130. Recession Coming?

07 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And the debate around weapons and ESG investment.

Biggest Rally in Gilts & Bunds for a Decade. And US$ Funding Costs Are Rising.

02 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And a regular reminder to follow @adam_tooze in Twitter.

Latest on Russia and Sanctions. And Germany’s New Military Spending Policy

28 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Russian reserves and the latest sanctions news.

Russia 🇷🇺 invades Ukraine 🇺🇦

24 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Russian bonds fall 10-25 points this morning.

What Bonds Did On My Winter Holidays ❄️

21 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

A flight to quality week, as Russian invasion fears mounted.

7.5% US CPI. Another upside surprise. Also Italy.

10 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

10 year Treasuries approaching 2%…

Bond Tantrum 😱

07 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The ECB, the Bank of England, and then the US jobs data - one shock after another. Bonds sold off bigly.

🇪🇺ECB Hiking Cycle🇪🇺. And the Bank of England announces it’s selling ALL its £ corporate bonds.

04 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Market is now expecting 2 rate hikes from the ECB this year! HUGE moves in bonds and currencies.

5 Fed Hikes Priced for 2022

01 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

And a look at bond market performance so far this year.

Morrissey/Terry Pratchet/J-Pow

27 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Hawkish Powell at the Fed last night.

Default Expectations Rising in Russia and Ukraine, and “Safe Havens” Rally

24 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Bund yields are down 10 bps on last week.

🇩🇪 German Bund Yields Turn +ve 🇩🇪

19 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

You get paid for lending to Germany again.

🚨7%🚨

17 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

US inflation hit 7% last month, the highest since 1982. Bond markets have sold off again, and credit is having its worse ever start to a year.

Season 6: Welcome to 2022 - and a huge bond sell-off

11 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Real yields are rising, and the market is now expecting 4 Fed hikes this year.

Uncle Jim’s 2022 Bond Market Outlook

16 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Fed, inflation, policy errors, recession, credit, emerging markets, Bitcoin.

Francis Fukuyama and The End of History

07 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A look back at this really important and interesting book from 25 years ago.

Last US Employment Report of 2021: Something For Everyone?

03 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

And what are inverting yield curves telling us?

Bad News on Vaccines: Risk Off Again. And BRICS.

30 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Moderna CEO was pretty negative on the Omicron outlook today. Also, BRICS revisited.

Covid: Treasuries Rally & Credit Weak on New Variant.

26 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Emerging markets also lower on South African variant news.

Powell vs Brainard: Winner Announced Today?

22 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Biden will appoint the next Fed Chair before he goes on holiday tomorrow.

U.K. Furlough Ends, But Employment Grows

16 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Great news from the U.K. labour market. But it puts a Bank of England Rate hike back in play.

US Inflation: Highest for 30 Years

11 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

6.2% rise in consumer prices surprised economists. And pretty much every component of inflation is running hot.

China’s 🇨🇳 High Yield Market Turmoil Accelerates. And Real Bond Yields Hit Record Lows.

09 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A Chinese property developer is downgraded to Junk, and the whole HY market falls, again. The HY index is down 30% since the summer.

COP26 - A Conversation With Climate Solutions Investor Randeep Somel.

05 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Carbon taxes, politics, greenflation and more.

Scenes on Threadneedle Street.

04 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

No Bank of England rate hike. Big gilt rally even as the Fed announces the QE taper.

Australia & Italy - Central Banks Waving Goodbye?

03 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Yield Curve Control ended by the RBA in Australia 🇦🇺, ECB ending the PEPP next year.

Back to Normal for the U.K. 🇬🇧?

01 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Will the Bank of England hike this week? And if so why did gilts rally so much last week?

US 🇺🇸 Entering Recession Now?

22 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Bryson & Blanchflower think so in a new economic paper. Gulp.

🚨 Policy Error Alert 🚨

19 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Are central banks about to make a terrible mistake by hiking rates too soon, or does the inflation outlook justify higher interest rates?

1980s: The Latin American Debt Crisis

18 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A look a Federal Reserve blog on that crisis. Also, the US yield curve starts to flatten…recession ahead?

Nobel Prizes And Other Academic Stuff

12 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Includes the new ECB paper on consumption post Covid.

Jobs Weak, Bonds Weak

11 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Non Farm Payrolls disappointed again, but bond yields had another poor week.

Is the USA’s Sovereign Credit Rating Useful?

07 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Gas, debt ceilings and the 2011 S&P US sovereign rating downgrade.

Credit: Default Rates Still Falling, But Spreads Starting To Move Higher?

05 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Corporate bonds have outperformed government bonds in 2021. How much further can that go?

Biden’s in Trouble: The GOP Smells Blood

01 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The US has managed to delay running out of $ from October to December. But the chances of Biden’s big stimulus bills getting passed unscathed look b...

Stagflation

29 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Feels a bit like the 1970s, doesn’t it?

US 🇺🇸 Default on 20th October?

27 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Forget Evergrande - might America default next month?

Bond Market Sell-off: Bank of England Triggers 10 bps+ Yield Spike

24 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Government bond yields rise. And still no sign of the Evergrande coupon payment on the $ bonds…

Is Evergrande Contagious?

21 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

More on the expected Chinese property default. Also, today sees the U.K. launch a green gilt.