Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Evergrande - China’s Lehman Brothers?

17 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Chinese property company Evergrande is in trouble. It’s bonds have fallen to 25 cents in the dollar. Is this the “big one” for Chinese real esta...

ECB Taper: a Head-Scratcher

14 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Whoops, they did it again.

Income Inequality Driving Bond Yields Lower?

08 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Have a read of the Mian, Straub & Sufi paper (or the FT’s Robert Armstrong’s summary of it).

Season 5, Episode 1: Three Things Driving the World of Bonds

06 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Delta slowdown, the end of the US global policeman role, and China’s pushback on capitalism.

Duncan Weldon’s “Muddling Through - the surprising story of Britain’s economy”

23 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Duncan’s new book is a “must read” look at how the British economy became the world’s leader - and what went wrong thereafter…

Moyeen Islam: the Bank of England & Quantitative Tightening

18 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

An interview with the famous Barclays government bond strategist, Moyeen Islam. The BoE has announced its QE exit policy - have they got it right?

Uncle Jim’s 2021 Summer Special

09 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What does the rest of the year hold for bond investors?

US 🇺🇸 GDP Misses - but don’t worry, it’s bullish!

29 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Inventory drawdown results in a growth miss for the States. Also today, the Fed starts thinking about tapering.

Record low US Real Yields amid a China Crisis 🇨🇳

27 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Chinese and HK stock markets are tumbling on regulatory fears. Add that to the existing Delta Variant worries and US TIPS real yields are at recor...

Morgan Stanley Paper: Debt Sustainability is Key

16 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

R-G is the most important thing, not an arbitrary debt/GDP level.

US 🇺🇸 Inflation Higher Again - But Bond Markets Barely Move As Global Growth Fears Rise.

13 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

5.4%! And core inflation up 0.9% over June alone. Can we still use the “transitory” narrative?

The ECB Raises the Inflation Target

09 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

But this is no Fed-style FAIT.

Bonds Rally Again! More Buyers Than Sellers.

07 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

And Koko-Chan, the Japanese bond market mascot.

Green Gilts

05 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The U.K. government is going to issue “green” bonds in September. What will they look like? How much will they cost?

“Where Credit Is Due” by Gregory Smith. Africa’s Sovereign Debt and its Future.

29 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

An interview with Greg Smith, expert in African bond markets and economics, about his great new book.

Inflation Bottlenecks Ending?

28 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Also, the Bank of England is less hawkish than feared. And High Yield isn’t very high yield.

The De-Re-Inflation Trade.

22 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Also - digital currencies and freedom.

Fed Turns Hawkish. And is Australia 🇦🇺 Really A Huge Default Risk?

17 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Talking about yesterday’s change to the Fed Dot Plots, plus a FTSE Russell sovereign default model based on climate change.

U.K. 🇬🇧 Inflation Joins the Party 🎉

16 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Please forgive the emojis, I couldn’t help myself. 🤗

10 Reasons Why Treasury Bonds Are Rallying

12 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What it says in the title.

5% US Inflation - Highest for 13 Years.

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It was expected to be strong. It was, and then some. 💪

Some Personal Gilt Market Historical Recollections

07 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

One of the biggest bond issues in history matures today. 8% 2021.

Taper! The Fed Announces It’s Selling Its Corporate Bonds.

03 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Is this the beginning of the end for QE and emergency bond purchases?

Ryan A. Bourne - “Economics In One Virus” 🦠

28 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Cato Institute’s Ryan Bourne discusses his new book on the economics of the pandemic: the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL), public v private ac...

Demographics: is the future inflationary or deflationary?

26 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As Europe ages in the same way as Japan has, should we expect higher or lower inflation? Also today, I try to pronounce Tokamak.

The Eurovision Bond Contest 🇮🇪🇮🇹🇮🇸🇸🇪🇩🇪

24 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Is the Eurozone reopening going better than expected? And why are European government bond yields rising?

Diamond Hands & Laser Beam Eyes

21 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Bonds are dull and stable this week so far - all the action is in crypto currency.

China Still Loves US Treasury Bonds

19 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Foreigners bought $200 billion of USTs in Q1. Also, U.K. inflation, and weak Eurozone bond markets.

Blowout US Inflation: +4.2%, Highest since 2008

12 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

And core inflation was the strongest since 1981!

Poor Employment Numbers - the GOP Blames Feckless Biden Stimulus

10 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Only 266k jobs created in the US in April, nowhere near the 1 million expected. In today’s podcast we ask why. Also, Scottish independence, and the ...

Season 4 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

07 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It’s back. Loads going on - it’s going to be a fascinating summer for markets.

Spring Bond Market Roundup: the end of Season 3.

06 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A longer episode covering the market’s Fed hike expectations, and credit market performance.

The Bank of England and a Coup d’Etat

29 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It happened in the 1960s, so sorry if I alarmed you.

Are Inflation Linked Bonds Rubbish?

25 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

As predictors of future inflation they turn out to be pretty mediocre.

How Much Does QE Cost?

23 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Can we afford it once rates rise? Also we welcome Turkey’s 4th central bank Governor since 2019.

1978: the Fed’s “Inflation Fighter”

19 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

A bond market history lesson. Chairman G. William Miller takes over at the Federal Reserve.

No Fed Hike till 2024

18 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Well that’s what they are saying.

U.K. Trade Collapses. Et France A Besoin de Babies.

12 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Come for the U.K. export data, stay for my French accent.

Growth vs Bonds: pick your winner

09 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Government bond yields are assumed to have a close relationship with nominal GDP growth. How’s that going?

J-Pow Fails To End Bond Rout

05 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

He spoke, US Treasuries hated it. Yields up again.

Budget Day. And the Fed hints that it’s worried about the bond tantrum.

03 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

How sensitive is the UK’s government debt to rising rates? Also the Fed’s Brainard speaks about last week’s bond market turbulence.

Bond Market Sell-Off, or a Blip?

01 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Also a look back at the 1994 bond rout.

Episode 100 - Did the “Bond Bubble” Just Burst?

26 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Carnage in US Treasury bonds...

Bond Carnage Accelerates

22 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Australian government bond yields up 17 bps overnight. But risk assets are not moving...yet. Also: Sir Kier Starmer, the £, and Uber.

Bond Market Sell-off Escalates

17 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Yields are up everywhere. This hasn’t hit risky assets yet - but it might just be a matter of time. Also: the thorny case of Finders vs Keepers.

Worst U.K. GDP Since 1709

12 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The U.K. ended 2020 at the bottom of the developed market league tables for growth. But are we comparing like for like?

2% US Treasury Yields!!! Briefly.

09 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Also today, Bitcoins, and the bull-case for the US dollar.

Bank of England Special

05 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Gilts sold off biggly yesterday as we got hawkish commentary out of the Bank of England. Negative rates off the table?

Enter the Draghi

04 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

He’s back - probably. Italian BTP yields fell 10 bps yesterday as a result. Also back? The KLF. And inflation?

Hi Ho Silver! The Wizard of Oz Revisited.

01 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Also today, the House of Lords QE Inquiry, & the US minimum wage hike.

Bed of Nitroglycerin?

26 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

10 years ago Bill Gross said the U.K. was in severe danger on account of its budget deficits. It didn’t work out like that. Also today I look at my ...

Bonds: Pinned Between Dovish Central Banks and Expansionary Governments

25 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

This week we find out more about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook given recent softer jobs data, and the likely timing and size of Biden’s stimul...

Yellen: The Musical. And inflation.

22 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

5 reasons why inflation comes back in 2021 from Morgan Stanley. Plus a musical tribute to the new Treasury Secretary.

What The Hobbit Teaches Us About Monetary Policy

18 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

When Smaug captured the dwarves treasure, he plunged the economy of Middle Earth into depression and deflation. Perhaps leading the rise of the far ri...

Bring on the Stimmy: Biden & Powell want growth. Also what on earth happened with Europcar’s CDS?

15 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Stimulus, fallen angels, sovereign defaults, and a CDS disaster that will go down in bond market history.

2021 Starts With a US Treasury Bond Selloff

11 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Yields are rising, curves are steepening. A big Biden stimulus is expected. Will we get higher Fed rates and inflation though?

Uncle Jim’s 2021 Bond Market Outlook

15 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A bumper edition looking at the key issues for bond markets in 2021, and beyond.

Emerging Market Defaults: More On the Way? Not Necessarily.

08 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Today I look at EMD’s default experience so far this year, and then at the forward projections for default risk. Also I preview Thursday’s ECB mee...

Sherman McCoy, The Bonfire of the Vanities, Gold & Giscard Bonds

04 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President, died this week. He was a key player in France’s economic relationship with the US. He also ...

A Bad Day For US Treasuries

02 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

But a good day for the US economy as the Democrats and Republicans showed that they might be able to work together around fiscal stimulus. USTs sold o...

The Maradona Theory of Monetary Policy, and the Man With Maradona’s Shirt

30 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

RIP the GOAT. Also today, RPI reform, Tesla, Copper, and Debt Cancellation.

Yellen, Brainard & Shelton

25 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Lots of new appointments in the world of US economics to talk about today. Also, RPI reform in the U.K., and pressure on the New Zealand central bank....

African Sovereign Debt: a Deep Dive with Gregory Smith

23 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

With Zambia having defaulted on international bonds last week, it’s a good time to interview Greg Smith, emerging market debt analyst, and former Wo...

Economic Long Covid

17 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

I’m guessing we all agree that the recent vaccine news makes a strong economic recovery likely in 2021. But how much long lasting damage - or scarri...

Lena Dunham’s “Industry” and that 4% US Treasury Trade...

13 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

In today’s podcast we have a new series from the “Girls” star, we have Fed speak, bitcoins, WFH and a HUGE bond auction.

Puppies and Inflation

11 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Ok the podcast is mainly about central bank rate expectations, but I also suggest that puppy inflation is not being captured in the U.K. RPI stats.

Bicycle Economics

09 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

3 things about the market for pushbikes that tell us about the global economy.

Bonds stabilise after their US Election rally - but the US$ is falling

06 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Corporate America got the result it wanted - no prospect of regulatory pressure given the Dems didn’t win the Senate. Risk assets rally, but the US ...

US Presidential Election Too Close To Call: but No Blue Wave

04 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A quick morning update on last night’s US elections. US Treasuries rallying hard as fiscal expansion expectations are scaled back.

Europe’s “Hamilton Moment”, and Piketty’s new film.

22 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The EU has issued its own bonds. And the film of Capital in the 21st Century.

Double Standards at the IMF?

19 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Today I look at sovereign CDS markets given the UK’s downgrade last week, and ask whether the IMF really has changed its tune over austerity.

Might the U.K. be downgraded tonight? And memories of 1990s gilt auctions.

16 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Today I look at the newly minted Nobel Economics prize winners, and their work on auction theory. Also Moody’s and the U.K. credit rating, and EMD f...

Used Car Prices Up, but US inflation Weakens

14 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Today I look at a weak US CPI print, and an Economist article called “Eternal Zero” about low bond yields.

Fiscal Multipliers are POWERFUL at times like these

12 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Today I look at some new IMF research, as well as at a Chinese policy change, and an interview with the ECB’s Lane.

Awful U.K. GDP, Technical Analysis for Beginners, & China.

09 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Chances of negative rates have increased in the U.K. after a disappointing growth number for August. It should have been strong given Eat Out To Help ...

Defaults - What’s Priced In Now?

07 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Corporate bonds have rallied massively from the distressed levels we saw in Q2 this year. What are current spread levels telling us about expected def...

Can Robots Predict Financial Crises?

05 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

New Bank of England research says “yes”.

Lagarde, Reversal Rate Dynamics and Weak Eurozone Inflation Expectations

01 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation numbers are coming in for September and they are terribly weak in Europe. The ECB is worried. Might they, like the Fed, change their inflati...

It’s the Economy, Stupid.

30 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Who’s really best for the economy, Republicans or Democrats? Paul Krugman has the answer. Also a remarkable academic paper is damning on Central Ban...

Bonds vs Equities - who’s winning in 2020?

28 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Today I look at the year to date total returns of bonds and stocks, as well as at the dispersion of price changes within the official inflation number...

Joe Biden and the Bond Markets

24 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Polls are suggesting that a Democrat “clean sweep” is possible in the US elections next month. If that happens, fiscal spending will rise signific...

The Bank of England gets ready for Negative Rates.

18 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday the BoE told the market to prepare its systems for negative interest rates. There’s likely more QE on the way too. In today’s episode I ...

Japan Special: is Japanification Such a bad thing after all?

14 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Japan is getting a new Prime Minister later this week. Yoshihide Suga will replace Shinzo Abe. What does that mean for Japan’s low growth, high gove...

David Graeber’s “Debt: the First 5000 years”. And explaining Sterling’s collapse.

11 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Anthropologist David Graeber sadly died last week. One of his most important works is “Debt”, which challenges our idea of money, and calls for wi...

The Fed’s New Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework

09 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Central Bank inflation targets don’t change very often, so it’s a massive deal when the world’s most important CB changes its goals. The Fed wil...

The World of Bonds is back! So what happened in August’s fixed income markets?

07 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

This is the first episode of Season 2 of the World of Bonds. In it I examine the yield curve steepening we’ve seen, the relentless grind lower in cr...

Uncle Jim's Summer Bond Thoughts

30 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

This is the last episode of Series 1 of Uncle Jim's World of Bonds, although I'll be back over the summer if something interesting happens.  In t...

GOLD!

27 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A gold market special - how does today’s new record high for the “barbarous relic” relate to the world of bonds?

Evidence That Cutting Rates Below Zero Is Counterproductive?

22 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

We’ve got the first study on whether negative rates work from a behavioural point of view. Also today, the new Euro Area Recovery Plan, and a look a...

Are pandemics inflationary or deflationary?

20 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

You know we like a bit of economic history here, so here’s some evidence from hundreds of years of pandemics, from the Black Death to the flu of 195...

The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton: Part 2. The problems with the book.

15 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

We looked at the 6 “myths” around deficits in my last podcast, and the idea that there is no constraint for sovereigns to borrow unlimited amounts...

The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton: Part 1

13 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A special episode focusing on the economic book of the moment, The Deficit Myth. What are the limits to government borrowing? Are there any? In today’...

We Asked For a Green New Deal - We Got Half Priced Nando’s (Monday to Wednesday Only).

10 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Today we look at the UK’s new fiscal stimulus measures, and also about the US “ban” on ESG.

No Atheists in Foxholes as the Ayn Rand Institute takes a Federal Loan

07 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

We also look at COVID adjusted inflation rates, and the strongest U.K. money supply growth since Henry VIII.

The New Taper Tantrum: the End of Furlough

06 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The jobs rebound in the US has been strong so far. What happens though when furlough schemes start to come to an end later this year?

Gold, Nasdaq, gilts: the 2020 winners so far

01 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A super strong Q2 for all asset classes. In today’s podcast I look at this year’s financial markets performance so far, as well as asking whether ...

Yield Curve Control & Currency Depreciation

29 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve has started to talk about YCC as a possible next monetary policy step for the US. Japan got there first - it’s not actually had ...

Is the Bank of England still independent? And explaining ESG outperformance.

26 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Paul Tucker, former BoE Deputy Governor is in the press today worrying that central bank independence is under threat. In today’s podcast we look at...

Angrynomics!!! Eric Lonergan & Mark Blyth’s great new book.

23 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Eric Lonergan & Mark Blyth explain how anger put Trump into White House, led to Brexit and the Yellow Vests in France. And then discuss how negative i...

The 2020 US Presidential Election: Biden’s to Lose?

22 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

After Trump’s disastrous Tulsa rally this weekend, it’s time to look at the latest betting odds for November’s election, and also to look at som...