Iran War Escalates, Kurds Stay Out, Global Shipping Crisis

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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Michelle Martin 0:02
Israel bombed Iran's oil facilities over the weekend, causing black rain to fall over the capital, Tehran.

What recent events escalated the Iran War?

Steve Inskeep 0:08
A senior Israeli official tells NPR's Daniel Estrin Israel expects to defeat Iran in about three weeks.
Michelle Martin 0:14
I'm Michelle Martin, that's Steve Inskey, and this is Up First from NPR News. One of the groups that could rise up against Iran's government is ethnic Kurds. Many live in western Iran.

What is the Kurdish perspective on the Iran conflict?

Michelle Martin 0:26
Others live across the border in Iraq. But an Iraqi leader tells NPR they are, quote, not guns for hire. So what is their role in the Middle East war?
Steve Inskeep 0:34
Also, the war is blocking traffic through one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Tankers and container ships are not passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and a global energy crisis is growing.

How is the global shipping industry affected by the Iran War?

Steve Inskeep 0:46
Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day. Here's a big question hanging over the U.S. and Israeli war in Iran. How long will this war last?
Michelle Martin 1:02
That question is becoming urgent as the war begins to affect the global economy. Israel escalated the war over the weekend, bombing oil facilities. The disruption of shipments from multiple nations has sent the price of oil soaring. And Iran shows no sign of giving in after choosing a new supreme leader over the weekend.
Steve Inskeep 1:18
A senior Israeli military official spoke with NPR's Daniel Estrin about how Israel views the prospects for ending the war.

What role do ethnic Kurds play in the Middle East conflict?

Steve Inskeep 1:25
Hey there, Daniel.
Daniel Estrin 1:26
Hi, Steve.
Steve Inskeep 1:26
Okay, so what is the Israeli timeline?
Daniel Estrin 1:29
Well, just as we're speaking here, you might hear the alarms. We are getting advance notice on our phones that an Iranian missile is on its way to Israel. So we have a few minutes now to speak before the air raid sirens will go off. But I'll tell you that Israel is expecting that it needs about three weeks. to achieve its goals in Iran. That's what a senior Israeli defense official told me this weekend. This person is in the military's operations directorate.

How does Israel's military strategy impact the war's duration?

Daniel Estrin 1:58
He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Israel's military plans, but he says the goal is to decimate Iran's army, navy, military industries. And Israel also realizes that President Trump could just end the war at any point. So the U.S. is not giving a timeline on how it sees the war and how long it would take. But we do know that the U.S. has not been happy with Israel's targeting of the Iranian oil depots this weekend.
Steve Inskeep 2:23
And, Daniel, of course, you're going to move when you need to to be safe. Don't worry about us at all, but glad you're with us for another moment. Sounds like there's a little bit of daylight between the U.S., and Israel here.

What are the implications of Iran's new supreme leader?

Steve Inskeep 2:33
But why did Israel target Iran's oil facilities? Pretty dramatic.
Daniel Estrin 2:37
Yeah, well, Israel said that Iran was using that oil to fuel Iranian missiles launched at Israel. But this is also civilian infrastructure we're talking about. U.S. officials have been displeased with the extent of the damage that Israel caused, you know, those skies that were blackened and the oily raindrops that dropped onto Tehran. So I heard from a person briefed on the matter, not authorized to speak publicly, that the The U.S. was not pleased with the extent of that damage. Even Senator Lindsey Graham, who's close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, tweeted publicly, Israel, be cautious about your targets because Iran's oil economy will be needed when Iran's regime collapses.

What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in global shipping?

Steve Inskeep 3:14
Or Graham hopes it will collapse, although the Iranians seem to be showing what they would consider to be resolved by choosing a supreme leader with the same name as the old supreme leader.
Daniel Estrin 3:24
That's right. Iran has appointed Mujtaba Khamenei to be the new supreme leader. He's the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by Israel on day one of the war. And the son is seen as even more hardline than the father was. But Iran has sent a message as well this weekend that it can exact a painful price around the region, not just Israel. We saw Iran launch a missile with a dangerous cluster bomb warhead that hit an apartment building here in Tel Aviv just a few minutes drive from me in Tel Aviv. and attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia took place this weekend as well.

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