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Valuetainment

“Baby AOC’s Are Winning” - AOC vs Vance Poll SPARKS SHOCKING 2028 Showdown

21 Dec 2025

32 min duration
6007 words
6 speakers
21 Dec 2025
Description

A new Newsweek-covered poll claims AOC narrowly leads JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 matchup. The panel breaks down why the poll matters, who funded it, how much credibility it deserves, and why conservatives ignoring warning signs on affordability, messaging, and unity could repeat historic election mistakes.

Audio
Transcription

Chapter 1: What does the new Newsweek poll reveal about AOC and JD Vance?

0.031 - 30.586 Pat Bet-David

According to a new poll from Newsweek, not Newsweek poll, Newsweek writes this article. I'll tell you who the poll is from. AOC officially leads J.D. Vance for the first time in 2028 election matchup. I'm sorry, what did you say, Pat? Yeah, exactly. The socialist, AOC, democratic socialist, leads J.D. Vance for the first time. You know, the Republicans, oh, J.D. Vance is a shoo-in.

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30.646 - 66.066 Pat Bet-David

Oh, it's done. Oh, really? Yeah. All right. AOC, a slight lead over J.D. Vance in a hypothetical 2028 matchup. AOC edges the Republican nominee 51-49. In the argument Verisite survey released on Tuesday, however, the result was within the 2.7% point margin of error, making the two candidates statistically tied. The poll asked voters who they would vote if the election was between the two of them.

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66.046 - 113.734 Pat Bet-David

So... The poll also found that Vance was more popular among white voters with 57% saying they would vote for him and 43% opting for Ocasio-Cortez. But she has a commanding lead with black voters, 79%. And with Hispanic voters, she's at 64%. Keep in mind, black voters, 79% just 20 years ago was 92%. just 10 years ago, was 88%. So even 79% is not as high as it once used to be just a decade ago.

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113.754 - 120.323 Pat Bet-David

So, Tom, is this a real poll, and is this something the American people should be concerned about, specifically conservatives?

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120.343 - 139.711 Tom

Well, yes and yes. Yes, it's a real poll. It was the Argument Verisite survey. And you could say, well, there's flaws in them. Typically, over time, they haven't been perfectly accurate. Yeah, well, but you know what? Think of these polls, Pat, as directional. That it's directional. So it's a real poll and people should be concerned about it. The other polls that are out there that have J.D.

139.791 - 161.46 Tom

Vance versus the field, Vance holds his own at like 37, 39 percent. And the second in those polls is Gavin Newsom, like at 22 percent. So when you do Vance against the Democrat field, everybody goes, wow, he's way up on them. But you have to remember, everybody in those polls as Republican is saying Vance.

Chapter 2: How statistically tied are AOC and JD Vance in the hypothetical matchup?

161.44 - 177.841 Tom

The Democrats are splitting their votes about everybody that's down there. And when you take off... excuse me, Gavin Newsom, then it's this. So whenever you do a head-to-head poll like this in the midst of going into weakness and midterm, I'm not surprised by the result.

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178.021 - 199.431 Tom

However, this should be a concern for the GOP and for Vance and people because what it means is a consolidated Democrat side right now is closer than you think and may even be a little bit ahead of Because the economy and affordability and some other issues are very real. So this is something to be concerned about. And she's capable.

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199.932 - 218.162 Tom

The other thing I look at now, this is me going to go below the surface. Who paid for this poll? Usually politicians pay for the polls. The pollsters just don't go out and do it. They have donors and they have sponsors of the polls. So did some people on AOC side said, let's run this. And then they run it and they go out.

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218.302 - 239.77 Tom

And I found it was odd that Newsweek said we reached out to representatives by email outside of normal business hours. I hate it when the media does that. Oh, like I called them. We got no comment from AOC or Vance. We did send the email at midnight. So I got to be honest about that. That's such BS. What do you mean? Well, it's like they said, we couldn't get in touch with them.

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239.891 - 245.06 Tom

When did you set it? So they openly say, well, we did send the email after business hours.

245.201 - 251.012 Pat Bet-David

Yeah, but to be fair to them, neither one of them responded. So it's not like they sided with somebody. By the way, is there a chance?

251.032 - 252.033 Tom

But they didn't respond at midnight.

252.094 - 255.259 Pat Bet-David

Tom, did you find out who funded the poll? I'm actually curious.

255.279 - 274.523 Tom

No, but I want to know who funded the poll. How can we find out? Usually you can find in the fine print of the polls, I'm looking at what's called crosstabs and the fine print, said that this poll was sponsored by the United States DNC. Usually you can see the sponsors. Let me tell you... ABC will ask Ipsos, say, we'd like you to do a poll.

Chapter 3: What demographic trends are highlighted in the poll results?

286.153 - 304.172 Pat Bet-David

Light a fire. They better realize what the hell is going on. While you guys are working for ranking on influence and media and podcasts and all this stuff, the Democrats are whooping your ass. If it's just about the podcast game, then great. You're doing fine. But it's about your values and principles winning, you're losing.

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304.152 - 306.737 Tom

If it's this close, there's a problem. That's my opinion.

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306.837 - 322.158 Pat Bet-David

Interesting. Vinny, where are you at? AOC against JD. By the way, can you play that clip by AOC, what she says? Watch this, folks. She was asked, if you guys went head-to-head, how do you think you would do against JD? Look what... She says, go for it.

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322.458 - 327.605 Unknown

Do you think that you could beat J.D. Vance in a head-to-head race for president, as polling suggests, in 2028?

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327.625 - 338.32 AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)

Listen, these polls, like three years out, are, you know, they are what they are. But let the record show, I would stomp him. I would stomp him!

339.521 - 342.458 Unknown

Thank you, Congresswoman. I will stomp him.

342.558 - 344.921 Tom

I will stomp him. Do you think she kind of knew the question?

345.221 - 351.187 Pat Bet-David

Of course. I don't know if she knew the question. I know she knows about the poll. The vibe she gave me is she knew about the poll.

351.207 - 352.008 Tom

That's a little smug.

Chapter 4: Why should conservatives be concerned about the poll's implications?

353.429 - 359.296 Tony Hinchcliffe

Yes, it's an argument Verisite poll. Apparently the organization was founded in August of this year.

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359.356 - 375.643 Pat Bet-David

Okay, and it was founded by Jerusalem DeMoss. Who is Jerusalem DeMoss? Tyler Cohen. Is that a left guy or a right guy? Who's Tyler Cohen? Who's Susan DeMoss? including left center, central liberal leanings. I don't know these names.

0

375.703 - 381.571 Unknown

Rachel Pritzker? Okay, so it's a leftist. It's people that really don't like the country.

0

381.591 - 385.636 Pat Bet-David

All right, so it's a leftist idea. So, Vinny, what do you have with this?

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385.777 - 404.123 Unknown

Well, pull aside. I'm just... Listen, this Mamdani effect and all this movement, that's the future of the Democratic Party. It's socialism. It's communism. It's promising young people free stuff that they're never going to get, that they're going to pay for it. And I think it's a real... Real thing, real serious thing that people need to worry about.

404.143 - 425.875 Unknown

And that's why I'm pro like the mission should be us. And I take a little like it bothers me that a lot of people are like influencers are going to take that. You know what people need to be doing? How about all those Republicans and all those races and everything? Get your asses out there. Go do your thing. Go grassroots. Do everything. Because guess what? Daddy's Trump co-signing.

425.855 - 438.269 Unknown

isn't as powerful as it used to be. You need to be out there, all these people, because they just think, well, if Trump cosigns for me and says he's behind me, I'm going to win. No, no, no. You have to do the work. Get out there and do it. They're doing the work.

438.669 - 458.895 Unknown

The AOCs and all these Jasmine Crockett's, that's, to me, it's scary because they're out there and the message is getting out there to these young voters who have no idea, who have no idea. We're all going to see what's going to happen in New York. Give it two years with all these fake promises, all this... Fake socialist communist stuff is going to happen. They're going to get in.

459.016 - 476.449 Unknown

And I keep warning people what's going to happen when the pendulum swings. And these people, by the way, AOC is one of the people that said, well, the world's going to end. She's like, because of climate change, the world's going to be end. So even in her presidency, we're probably all going to be dead in her mind. So I think it's a very, very scary thing that people need to be aware of.

Chapter 5: Who funded the poll and what does that mean for its credibility?

591.837 - 615.111 Vinny

pollster rag that's coming out there and shockingly aoc is beating jd vance in this one poll within the margin of error this ain't gallop this ain't pew this ain't rasmussen this ain't you go up this isn't even abc cbs nbc none of it it's some random media organization that's like yeah aoc hypothetically can beat jd vance to me that's absolute bs oh my god aoc aoc

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615.091 - 640.593 Vinny

is an intellectual lightweight compared to JD Vance. She may have more style. She may have more Twitter followers in the land of eyeballs and influencer economy. JD Vance is a real dude. I'm not the biggest JD Vance guy, so I'm not here defending JD. But in a debate, Full-on hypothetical debate, if they're on stage, between the vice president, J.D.

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640.633 - 665.126 Vinny

Vance, and AOC on stage, she's going to get her clock cleaned. It's not even going to be close. And just because you're a big booty Latina, they ain't going to help you on this one. So, to me, this polls BS, AOC running for president is BS. Yes, she has... Influence in the Democratic Party. She has no influence in a greater landscape for the American economy. That's just me.

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665.587 - 687.971 Vinny

Secondly, Erica Kirk came out during Turning Point and said that she's going to do her best to help get J.D. Vance elected. We'll see what happens with that. My focus is let's end the year strong. Let's try to win the midterms so the trans community doesn't make a comeback. And then we can worry about 2028 in 2028. So to me, AOC is a nonstarter.

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687.991 - 696.826 Vinny

We haven't had a representative go from representative to president in the history of America. And you think it's going to happen with this intellectual lightweight AOC?

697.286 - 713.171 Pat Bet-David

What a pompous argument you're making. Sure, call me pompous, but I'm right. No, you don't understand. You know how many times you've been wrong, guy? You know what a pompous argument that is? Tell me why it's pompous. Let me tell you why it's pompous. That is by far the worst argument to have right now in this season.

713.331 - 713.672 Vinny

Explain.

713.992 - 723.107 Pat Bet-David

I'll tell you exactly why. I'll tell you exactly why. Tell me the biggest victory Republicans have had the last 90 days. Go ahead. I'll wait. Go ahead.

723.787 - 725.029 Vinny

What do you mean the biggest victory?

Chapter 6: What historical context is relevant to understanding the poll results?

1081.078 - 1107.303 Pat Bet-David

The dividers have spoken. I don't put Ben or Tucker as a synergist or unifier. So, yeah, I don't know. I think I am only – sometimes you sit there and you think everybody is overprepared. And you would be amazed how many times people are not overprepared. All of these guys, like how many meetings you think has been had about unifying the entire party?

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1108.224 - 1131.275 Pat Bet-David

You think there was a meeting of bringing Ben and Tucker together behind closed doors? I don't know if that happened. You think there was a meeting of Ben and Tucker having a private dinner together with somebody that's a non-existent person, not a front-facing type of person saying, hey guys, can we just hash this out? Listen, Tucker, Ben, we're not leaving this room until we hash it out.

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1131.655 - 1154.769 Pat Bet-David

All the phones outside, each of you guys gets to bring one security guard in that you trust. And if you want to bring one person in, you can, but no phones, nothing. Everyone's getting frisked. I don't want anything to be in here. Out. Let's talk. What's going on? No, this is a very weird season. Trust me, I was on the other side. Where I was selling the hope four years ago.

0

1155.732 - 1165.759 Pat Bet-David

Where, hey, it's going to be Trump. You guys are going to do this and that. Not right now. Right now it's cockiness. And it's extremely disturbing to me and annoying to me when I see this, but...

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1166.262 - 1185.874 Vinny

Can I respond real quick? Yeah, of course. Well, I agree with you on the cockiness thing. Don't start dancing in the end zone when you're on the two-yard line. However, I will say this. Since you used an NBA reference, we all know who's more knowledgeable when it comes to NBA of the two of us. No question. There's levels to this game.

1185.854 - 1207.757 Vinny

So there's a difference between winning a representative seat, Congress seat, versus a Senate seat, versus becoming a governor of a state, versus becoming the president of the United States. To me, if J.D. Vance ran against AOC in the Bronx, she'd clean his clock. OK, because they would she would win if they ran for maybe even governor of New York.

1208.018 - 1228.751 Vinny

She'd have a chance, a general election when the entire country is focused, hyper focused on what, you know, not just style, but substance. To me, she's an intellectual lightweight compared to J.D. Vance, and she would be exposed. This doesn't mean that she isn't capable of doing her little thing in the Bronx. Respect on that.

1229.132 - 1249.737 Vinny

This also doesn't mean that we should dismiss the fact that 2028 is around the corner and that we do need to basically wake up or else we're going to get our clock clean, the Republican Party, so to speak. But to me, the question was, do you believe this poll of a general election of the vice president of the United States versus AOC? And my simple answer was, I don't believe it. I don't see it.

1249.817 - 1256.125 Vinny

I'm not being cocky. She could win a representative seat in New York, not a general election against J.D. Vance. That's my opinion.

Chapter 7: How might AOC's potential candidacy impact the 2028 election?

1331.129 - 1353.358 Tom

But it's also historically accurate to say the economy has been, outside of intense wartime, the economy is the single most deciding factor for U.S. elections. You go take a look. Bush Sr. beat nobody. Meet nobody. Beat nothing in a suit in 1988. The economy shifted in 1992. They were cocky.

0

1353.698 - 1378.959 Tom

And by the time the summer got there and Ross Perot was getting traction and an unknown named Bill Clinton was up, it was too late. They lost in 92 on strategy in the midst of the economy. And right now, yesterday, University of Michigan has a highly credible consumer sediment survey. You know where that is right now? All time low. So we have an economy issue. What's all time low?

0

1378.979 - 1400.068 Tom

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey just hit an all time low. Forget polling. Forget strategists. Let's go look at things that have credibility and say, do you think that says that maybe you should be thinking about it? Do you think that says you maybe shouldn't be cocky? Do you think that says that all the things that you would never think would happen might happen?

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1400.048 - 1425.991 Tom

Yes, I think they're staring 1992 right in the face. Well, you know, you know, Reagan, the Bush senior Bush senior beat Dukakis beat nobody. And then 92 comes along the economy burps and they're cocky about it. And they got out strategize Clinton come out of nowhere. Perot fouled the stream with the third candidate numbers, but they weren't ready for it. They weren't ready for it.

0

1426.111 - 1436.666 Tom

And they got beat. And I see history getting ready to repeat. And it worries me because I think there's a country that's here that also is hanging in the balance, not just left right.

1437.427 - 1444.618 Vinny

Well, Tom, respect to you. Why do you think they think that the economy is at an all time low? Are you blaming Trump for that? No, I'm not.

1444.638 - 1460.586 Tom

But listen, when people go the ballot box, it's not who they blame. It's how they feel. Sure. And it's the independents in the middle. I don't I don't worry about the hard Trump, you know, you know, foundation. I don't worry about that. I do worry about the independents in the middle. And guess what?

1460.807 - 1485.861 Tom

Even the charts that that Trump showed, you saw how big those blue bars were and you saw the red bars were changing. The red bars have to get past the blue bar to get things back to what you were able to afford and buy previously. You have to overcome the inflation effect. Thirty one percent. Remember that number. Since Biden came into office, the U.S. dollar in spending declined.

1485.841 - 1504.054 Tom

power for the U.S. citizen has gone down 31%. Thank you. Now it's coming up. It's coming up. And all the things that Trump said are true. But that traction's got to come true. And then it'll show up in consumer sentiment. And then they got a shot. You can't be cocky in the face of that.

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