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Valuetainment

"Leadership Change Is COMING!" - Iran’s Supreme Leader HIDES As U.S. Strike Threat Looms

30 Jan 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: Why has Iran's Supreme Leader gone underground?

0.622 - 24.557 Pat

Stay focused on what's going on. Next story I want to get to is Iran. Iran's supreme leader retreats underground, warned of likelihood of U.S. airstrikes. Rob, if you want to go to this, page 9. Folks, if you're watching this, you want our stories, just go to the Manect Circle to get all the stories you can follow with us.

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25.378 - 28.823 Pat

You'll get all the notes every single week if you want to follow the notes that we're looking at.

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Chapter 2: What are the implications of U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf?

28.803 - 47.233 Pat

So, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has gone underground, reportedly hiding out in a bunker out of fear of being wiped out by the U.S. airstrikes as the USS Abraham Lincoln steams towards Persian Gulf. The 86-year-old Supreme Leader has moved to a fortified shelter in Tehran connected to a series of elaborate underground tunnels.

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47.213 - 68.335 Pat

After senior military officials warned of the increasing likelihood of an imminent U.S. attack, Iran International reported Khamenei has left his youngest son, Massoud Khamenei, 53, in charge of running the day-to-day management of the Islamic Republic. Massoud Khamenei's emergency duties include being the primary communication channel with the regime's executive branch.

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68.435 - 93.208 Pat

Iran has deemed the likelihood of the U.S. airstrikes to be high after President Trump announced that warships were headed that way. So that's one story. All of a sudden, major airlines cancel flights to the Middle East with possible of U.S. airstrikes. Then Iran, the senior Iran official says Iran will treat any attack as an all-out war is what he announces. Rob, do you have that clip as well?

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94.07 - 113.925 Pat

Senior Iranian official stated that Iran will treat any attack as an all-out war against us on Friday ahead of the arrival of the U.S. military aircraft. strike group and other assets in the Middle East region, which is expected to be in the coming days. This military buildup, we hope, it is not intended for real confrontation, but our military is ready for the worst case scenario.

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114.486 - 137.218 Pat

This is why everything is on high alert in Iran, said the senior Iranian official speaking on condition of anonymity. This time we will treat any attack, limited, unlimited, surgical, kinetic, whatever they call it, as an all-out war against us, and we will respond in the hardest way possible to settle this. U.S. President Trump stated that his administration is watching Iran very closely.

Chapter 3: How is Iran's leadership reacting to the threat of U.S. airstrikes?

137.338 - 138.882 Pat

Humberto, what do you think is going to happen here?

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140.6 - 162.732 Humberto

I think this is not a defining moment right now. And I think it's very, because, you know, I think it's very, it's good for the regime that they have an excuse to go on hiding. My guess, and I'm thinking this from the perspective, everyone's talking about the regime and they're talking about the U.S. influence, but this revolution is about the economy, right?

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163.172 - 188.941 Humberto

We saw over the last year the reports of 42% inflation, low energy production, running out of water, and those reasons by themselves, Pat, like just economical reasons, they're enough to topple a government. You know what I mean? We've seen that President Trump has been very careful with his actions, very tactical with his actions in Iran. I'm not calling him bluff.

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189.021 - 206.685 Humberto

I think he will act when time is ready. But them pushing the narrative that the attack is imminent, it gives them safe passage to finally get out. Because if Trump doesn't get them, eventually the people of Iran will get them. And I'm not advocating for any regime change or anything of that nature.

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206.665 - 217.541 Humberto

But if you get your savings wiped out with a 48% inflation, you get half of whatever you had, you get it cut in half, you're going to revolt. That's basically my opinion on it.

218.362 - 234.445 Pat

Yeah. So, you know, this Saturday we had the podcast with the two Iranians, Amir and Dr. Kangorlu. And the doctor, who's a nuclear physicist, he said something very interesting. He said, this is the first time in the history of the world. Rob, can you look this up? I don't think we did this.

234.425 - 248.465 Pat

If you want to search, when is the last time in history that a religious revolution and an economical revolution was taking place at the same time in the same country? It happened two separate times.

Chapter 4: What internal pressures is the Iranian regime facing?

248.966 - 266.892 Pat

He was saying that Iran is the first country ever in the history to have two different types of revolutions taking place at the same time. One is economic. One is religious, meaning one, economy. It's horrible. They're not making money. They can't take care of their families. Two, they are sick and tired of the Islamic... a revolutionary guard of what it's doing to it.

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268.214 - 284.019 Pat

But if you watch this, the most recent one that was close to both, they're saying 79, Khamenei, but the other way around, religious and Islamic, and then the one that's happening right now. This isn't pretty what's going on in Iran today. It's not. And at any point, anything can happen.

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284.039 - 310.399 Pat

It's so unpredictable for us that when you look at this, Tom, from the standpoint, I'm curious to know what you'll say about this, If you had to have a, you know, if you yourself, you have your Tom Kalshi, without looking at Kalshi, Tom's Kalshi, what's the split on whether U.S. will attack, cause some mayhem in Iran versus two, nothing happens during Trump's term?

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310.379 - 334.486 Tom

So I think we've hit 50-50. That something could happen? That there will be some sort of strike against military, radar, or what they call distant defense proxies. I think we're going there. It really spooked me. over the weekend because the Department of Defense around the world can use simple air traffic control messages.

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335.148 - 351.458 Tom

And so even the airlines don't know what's up, but they cancel their flights because they're told there are no longer landing clearances where you're going. Like you're going from Greece to Tel Aviv. You're going from Rome to Cairo or whatever those are, those routes.

351.838 - 371.942 Tom

And all of a sudden you're saying, hey, we have an ATC hold because federal governments have the ability to get in there and put those. So you saw, remember over the weekend, all of a sudden we saw all these flights are canceled. Well, the airlines are like, why are they canceling them? They're canceling them because they are not permitted to leave or fly. And the airlines may not know the reason.

371.922 - 389.511 Tom

There could be heavy weather and ice in Boston, and they get ATC. It says, hey, we can't release you to Boston. And they look it up. Oh, man, they're getting ice. It must be the ice up there. I can't fly. This happened to us. So I felt like, wow, somebody has pushed the get out of the way button.

390.152 - 411.441 Tom

And that made me nervous because it's like, okay, are we going to fly over and hit some installations? So I thought we were like 75%. likely that something was going to happen over the weekend, Pat, not in the city center, not to the palace, but hit a bunch of military installations and fly home and then call back and say, do I have your attention? You know, that's kind of what I thought.

411.541 - 443.215 Tom

So my Kalshi is I'm 50-50 on we execute a strike before the end of the year. And I'm more than 50-50 that like September 1st, To Christmas, there's an actual leadership change. Because I don't think they can keep a lid on this with the people, what they're going through. I believe the Iranian people know that there is just one shot here. And this is the first shot in 47 years.

Chapter 5: How are economic factors influencing the current unrest in Iran?

605.221 - 623.313 Unknown

They're really like, hey, we're out here. We need some support. And. Nothing? You don't have a freaking leader? You don't have anybody that's going to stand up? Guys, one person that's going to say, I'm going to do it. Yes, everybody's here in Washington. I'm going to go there. I'm going to sacrifice because they need somebody, bro.

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623.494 - 628.864 Tom

Mr. President, Mr. President, Mr. President, Trump, Trump, Trump, three weeks ago you said you had our back.

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628.844 - 641.83 Unknown

Exactly, yeah, exactly. We went for it. Now, where are you guys at? That's like he was talking about earlier. You go in there, you start the fight, like, yeah, we're good, and you turn around, and your backup isn't there. It's like both. And they're not backing down. Those people are still getting killed.

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641.85 - 660.539 Unknown

And what, those 12,000 to 15,000 that are captured, what do you think the IRGC is doing to them in the jails? If they're still alive, you think they're all dead. Torturing. They're all dead. God rest their souls. They need the help. I think Trump is strategic. It's going to happen. But me personally, I know what everybody's going to say. Oh, we're at war. They need help.

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660.599 - 661.46 Unknown

It has to be sooner or later.

661.48 - 662.301 Humberto

Some kind of help.

662.321 - 667.208 Unknown

We don't know what kind of help. You know what I mean? Well, it needs to be something, bro. How many more people are going to die? There needs to be something.

668.029 - 690.623 Pat

What do you think, Pat? You know, I'm going back to thinking about what the difference is between Khomeini coming back in and Reza Pahlavi. is if I'm U.S., what am I thinking about? What is the DNA of Venezuela versus Iran? So imagine you're the president, okay? You didn't study Iran history. You didn't study Venezuelan history.

691.164 - 706.279 Pat

You studied the streets of New York, negotiation, tough games, manipulation, all that stuff. Roy Cohen, the University of Roy Cohen, right? Never give up, never surrender, never this, never that, always blame, always take every victory, whatever happens, yes. Okay, so here's a question.

Chapter 6: What historical context is relevant to the current situation in Iran?

760.926 - 784.999 Pat

There were some that supported him. If Reza Pahlavi has some of the guys on the military that are, you know, flipping and wanting to support, that needs to be public. Because me as the president, let's just say all of a sudden 30,000 military soldiers came out on the street saying, I was a former this, I am now pro-Reza Pahlavi. You think Trump would have an easier decision to make? Yes.

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785.399 - 801.782 Pat

That's the question. If you don't have the military, what happens? You go in, what's going to happen? Day one, they're going to listen to you? For what? No. In a democracy, you're going to go in and a regime that's been telling people what to do, you better listen to me or else you're going to get killed. Is Reza Pahlavi going to go out there?

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801.802 - 819.818 Pat

You know how many people Khomeini killed right afterwards when he went in? Thousands. And I'm talking military personnel he killed. If you're not on my side, take him out, take him out. He's ready to take him out, take him out, take him out, take him out. Then all the other military service members are like, whoa. We better get in line or else they're going to kill us. Does he have that?

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820.159 - 826.372 Pat

How do you do it? And these are more the extremists. So how do you flip an extremist regime versus the old one? Humberto?

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827.274 - 849.018 Humberto

Or else, that's the difference. There is no or else today. There is no or else. And the other thing is when we had Curtis Yarvis come in, He said something that really struck a nerve with me. He was like, does the regime believe on itself? All right. If you look at the Venezuela regime, they haven't they haven't done anything revolutionary in the past 25 years.

849.118 - 874.21 Humberto

They're just keeping their status quo, trying to deal with the economy like they're not expanding the communist revolution in South America, as they claimed. Now, if you see the Iranian regime, they're about the life pad. They're sending troops to Venezuela. They're sending money to all these terrorist organizations. There's some true believers inside of the IRGC.

874.19 - 889.452 Humberto

There wasn't that many true believers on believers' plan in Venezuela. And once the regime stops believing in themselves, I think you have a real chance of fighting. Because even if you beat them militarily, you're going to get an insurrection movement. They're going to go on hiding. They're going to go somewhere else.

889.873 - 898.786 Humberto

And then you're going to get a terrorist element inside of Iran, which is much better than them ruling the country. But it's a reality we have to live with. Tom?

899.587 - 924.48 Tom

We've seen this, a case study. And the case study was the Philippines. Marcos, Ferdinand Marcos and his crazy wife, literally insane, categorically insane wife, Imelda, you know, finally are getting on the edge of being forced out by the people. And the tensions are high and the revolution is forming. And Benito Aquino said, I need to go home and I need to be the man for the Philippine people.

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