Chapter 1: Why is Gallup ending its presidential approval tracking?
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Thursday, February 12th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. After more than 80 years, Gallup is ending its tracking of presidential approval ratings.
Gallup has measured POTUS job approval since the Truman era and says the decision is based on its research goals and priorities. Historically, John F. Kennedy holds the highest average approval rating at 71%, followed by Dwight D. Eisenhower and George H.W.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of Gallup's decision on political polling?
Bush. But the timing is raising eyebrows. Some observers have speculated Gallup may want to avoid political blowback. Steve Herman, executive director at the Jordan Center for Journalism Advocacy and Innovation, noted that President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to sue media and polling firms that portray him negatively.
And conservative commentator Bill Kristol pointed to Gallup's contracts with federal agencies.
Among active stocks, the pattern of tech names sliding even after decent earnings is back on display today.
Chapter 3: How are Cisco and AppLovin performing despite solid earnings?
Cisco is lower after reporting results and guidance that analysts largely called solid. Some investors flagged rising memory costs, but Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said the cost pressure looks like nothing but a speed bump given Cisco's AI-related strength. Applovin is also down despite beating on the top and bottom lines.
For Q1, it guided revenue of $1.745 to $1.775 billion, well above the $1.7 billion estimate. And Rollins is the biggest S&P decliner after missing estimates for both revenue and adjusted earnings. The pest control company pointed to erratic weather patterns that hurt one-time and seasonal work.
On the economic front, existing home sales fell 8.4% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $3.91 million.
Chapter 4: What factors contributed to the decline in existing home sales?
That's below the $4.2 million consensus and down from $4.27 million in December. Augur Infinity said the drop pushes sales back towards lows last seen around the Great Recession. Pantheon macroeconomist Oliver Allen said some will blame January's storms, but existing home sales are recorded when contracts close, not when they're signed.
Allen said that absent a clearer explanation, the plunge may be mostly noise and could unwind soon, especially if mortgage rates drift lower over the next few quarters. And in the Wall Street research corner, the S&P 500 hasn't gained much traction this year, but rotation away from last year's leaders has lifted some less trendy corners of the market.
Society General Strategist Manish Khabra points to machinery as a prime example, saying the group is hitting new highs and nearing all-time relative peaks. The S&P 500 Machinery Index is up more than 20% year-to-date, and the components with the best Seeking Alpha Quant ratings include Cummins, Nordson, Packer, Caterpillar, and Parker-Hannifin.
Chapter 5: What trends are emerging in the S&P 500 Machinery Index?
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