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Chapter 1: What are the initial thoughts on the Carlton vs West Coast match?
Waitley on SEN. Brendan Sanderson, let's have a little play with Carlton and West Coast. Gavin can set the mood for us. I'm only a slightly nervous Carlton fan going into Saturday. The reason I'm not fully pessimistic is Cripps' outstanding form and the rising star, Harry Dean. So the psychology of the Carlton fan has been transfixing all year, to be honest.
What are the noticeable changes for the Blues over the past five weeks?
Yeah, I'm a bit late to the party because we've all done this week. We're trying to unpack what exactly has changed, if anything, with Carlton and why they all of a sudden got on a five-zip run. And well done to the Blues because it's been fun to watch them back on the winning list.
Chapter 2: What psychological factors affect Carlton fans heading into the game?
And I don't want to rain on their parade, but there's still a lot of work to be done. So the thing that stands out, number one, is defensively, they're only in this five-week block where they've won five and lost zero. They are only conceding 67 points per game, which is better than Fremantle over the last five weeks, who is the number one defensive side in the competition.
So they're conceding the third fewest inside 50s against. And even when it gets in the opposition's forward line, Carlton are conceding the third fewest scores per inside 50. So their back lines had a really good five week block combined with Carlton's mids and wings getting back earlier to support defensively. And they are slowing down the opposition's ball movement.
So the games have become less transitional, which is what we wanted for Carlton because we knew they were unable to run at match intensity for 120 minutes. They're also getting a lot of turnovers in their front half, so their retention's improved. So it's staying in their forward line for a lot longer. And Carlton's forward 50 ground ball numbers are also really strong.
So they're getting on the loose balls in their forward line and they're creating great pressure with their opposition when they try and exit. So defensively, that's where the improvements are. They've been excellent in the last five weeks.
Chapter 3: What noticeable changes have occurred in Carlton's performance recently?
Offensively, their back half ball movement has improved slightly. So we are seeing a little bit more coast-to-coast ball movement, but it's still below the AFL average. And they're slightly more effective with their inside 50s, but they're still 13th in the competition for inside 50s generated. This is the bit, though, which I reckon sides are now aware of. This is my concern.
It's a positive, but it's my concern for Carlton is over the last five weeks, they are averaging 110 marks per week. That's the most. That's the most in the AFL. So they're defending with the ball a little bit more. So they're taking the speed out of the game for longer. So they're making the opposition defend them rather than Carlton chasing the opposition defensively.
So as I mentioned, 120 minutes of high speed footy has been a problem for Carlton so far this year. But at the moment, they're dictating at what speed the game is played at. So the challenges with this is they're going to have issues against sides that play man on man defense, not zone. So if they're going to try and they're going to need a plan B is what I'm trying to say really quickly.
because they're still scoring below the AFL average, which is 83 points per game. It's their defense that's keeping them, their ability to defend transition, which is keeping them in games and helping them win at the moment. So they've still got their core strength, contest and clearance. And I know you've mentioned that this week too, Gerard.
They've achieved all of this improvement while still maintaining their core identity, which is contest and clearance. So defense has been the big improver. Offense has still got some work to go.
The Eagles won't give them an easy game. So this is the really interesting insight. There's bits of the Eagles profile which has revealed itself and is impressive.
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Chapter 4: How has Carlton improved defensively over the last five weeks?
Yeah, I agree. Unfortunately for the Eagles, where Carlton are really strong, the Eagles are quite poor. So clearance differential, they're 17th, minus eight per game. And they're a bottom five contested possession side. So that's where Carlton are strong, Eagles are not.
But the positives for West Coast, they're only behind Sydney and Fremantle for scoring from their front half in the last five weeks. So they've got good front half pressure, the Eagles. So the Blues will either need to be quick in how they exit their own D50 or take care of how they rebound.
But for me, what stands out the most, in the last five weeks, West Coast have conceded the second fewest marks in the AFL. So I just said that Carlton are averaging the most, 110. Carlton only ā sorry, West Coast Eagles only concede 75 per game. So here's the point. West Coast are going to take away these mark chains for Carlton.
They won't be able to chip the ball around and deny Eagles the ball. So ā
uh they've also west coast eagles have also conceded the second fewest inside 50s in the last five weeks only 45 per game so um the blues are gonna have to be so effective when they go inside forward 50 but i reckon that's the big one is if carlton think they can chip the ball around and keep the ball off of west coast to control the speed west coast are going to take that away so we're going to see what fraser's got here with his plan b in offense yeah i like it
All right. Well, how does it play out? I still think Carlton will hold the advantage if they can win clearance and contested ball while still maintaining that really strong defensive profile, which we've seen under Josh Fraser. But I am concerned for the Blues if the Eagles can take away those mark chains and speed this game up for longer, because that's back to the old Carlton.
So I'd love to see if the Blues can sustain that transitional. Like if they were challenged by West Coast and it did become transitional, well, let's see if Carlton, the new Carlton, can win that way as well. But McWalter will be really encouraging West Coast to speed this game up. I think West Coast defensive system will suit this game.
They just need to break even if they can around contest and clearance. Massive games for Waterman and Shanahan. They've got big roles to play for West Coast too if they're going to win this one because they've combined, the two of those boys have combined for 48 goals this season. Waterman and Shanahan. The next highest goal kicker for West Coast Eagles is Harley Reid with 11.
So massive games for those two. If I'm Fraser, I've got to find a way to put those two to sleep. You've got to keep them quiet. And then a massive role for the midfields too. So Kelly, Reid, Williams, Yeo, Cripps. against Walsh, Smith, Hewitt, Chera. That'll be intriguing. That's really interesting in there how that's going to go.
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Chapter 5: What offensive strategies are Carlton implementing for this match?
Brenton Sanderson with our Strategy 2026.