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Chapter 1: What is discussed at the start of this section?
It's Stuart Waitley. Thanks for listening to the podcast. In this episode, your snap judgments from round 12 of the AFL season, the Monday means test with Adam Simpson, the wisdom and experience of Robert Craddock, and the latest sports news with Tom Morris. You can get in touch at any time. Waitley at sen.com.au. Thanks for listening. Enjoy. Monday morning. This is your town.
This is your station. This is Waitley. Good morning. The first day of winter and the halfway mark of the AFL season. Calling all snap judgments 1-300-736-736 and the 40 Wings temper text 0-4-3-3-98-11-16. The difference is temper. what you feel most passionately from the weekend of footy, and more broadly, sport, if that's where your emotions are running. 12 rounds down, 12 to go.
It demands a step back to survey the picture before us. And it's as you take in the view, you fully recognise the change in the terms of engagement. We're beyond the debate whether you like the idea of a top 10 in wildcard games. That's the altered reality. It was done for dramatic effects and the drama it's stirring is obvious.
The heightened tension around the top two, the top four, the top six, the curse and the refuge of seven through ten, the dead zone of 11th and 12th and the glimmer of hope that exists for those who would previously have been entering hibernation. We have our tearaway leaders. It will now, frankly, be surprising if Fremantle and Sydney don't hold those places through to hosting qualifying finals.
Third and fourth will be put on a plane, but with the security of the double chance. Fifth and sixth keeps you at home against an opponent who will have played one extra game while you were resting. There's a world in which fifth and sixth is a preferable landing zone.
It was suggested to me a couple of weeks ago that terms of PFI needed to alter to match the altered circumstances to assess top six integrity. There's merit to that argument. Either side of the wild card line are Melbourne and the Bulldogs. The honeymoon might be over for the demons. There were some old flaws in efficiency and connection evident yesterday.
And performance tells you now that they aren't the same team away from the MCG.
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Chapter 2: What are the key themes from the weekend's AFL games?
A second straight loss was easy enough to diagnose. The Giants ran past them all day long. The Bulldogs have seven wins, five of them by a goal or less. They are this year's heart attack team, and if history has taught us anything, there's nothing that matters more than winning your close ones. The difference between sixth and seventh is the chance to truly contend.
Luke Beveridge said as much on 360 last week. The Bulldogs have to drag themselves the right side of that line, and these narrow wins are giving them that chance. The wildcard zone is offering refuge to the Lions. Everyone will have a theory on Brisbane. To my eye, they are exhausted. They just can't go. The spirit was willing enough early on Saturday, but the body is weak.
The Lions have prevailed through the two longest campaigns in history. This is the cumulative toll. Chris Fagan will try to keep them viable with a win here and there before the breather of the bye. He needs reinforcements and he needs a second wind. If they can cling to a wildcard berth, the idea of the Lions will be there throughout. Great teams carry a lingering aura.
But this is not hard to diagnose either. It's the most understandable decline imaginable. This is the lot of the long-term champion. The Lions are gassed.
We'll keep plugging away. I realise we've had six wins and six losses and we're just holding on to our spot in the top ten now, whatever it's called. But we've been in worse positions and we've just got to keep working away and stay positive. Do you know, I've got a lot of faith in this group. I should have, shouldn't I? They've played in finals the last seven years and
You know, they've got to the big dance three years in a row. So there's something there to work with. We've just got to find it. I don't know whether they're a bit tired from all of those efforts over the last few years. It's really hard to work it out. There's just so many things at the moment that aren't quite right. But I'm going to stay positive with them because would you, if you were me?
Of course you would, because of what they've been able to do the last three years. And I know that doesn't help right now, but I'm going to back up. Probably the most angry I've been at three-quarter time in a long time, I suppose, and just said what I thought, pretty much.
Although I don't believe that what we say at the breaks makes massive differences to motivation levels other than I just sort of tried to dig at their pride a little bit and try and get something out of the last quarter for our next game.
Got to keep them viable, got to keep believing, but the Lions are gassed. For them, the wildcard slots are refuge. For others, they are a curse. And then there's the last place in the 10. It's taken the Giants only two good wins to grab hold of it. They've gone past Collingwood, who we identified weeks ago, even Stephen. They couldn't be more average.
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Chapter 3: What insights are shared about Fremantle and Sydney's performance?
But So, yeah, we're well and truly back in the season. We understand that. Well and truly back in the season. Patrick Cripps and Jacob Wee during 3AW and crunch time after the emotions of Friday night. The cat from Sandhurst has got the right idea. I'm eagerly awaiting your seedings this week. No way you can leave the Blues out.
And that brings us to Jarvis in East Burwood as we hit our snap judgments. Jarvis, welcome. Good morning, Gerard. I'm up and about, mate, because I've been waiting three years to say this. I told you so. Not hinted at, not suggested it. Told you and all the listeners. Three weeks ago at Carlton, we sacked Michael Voss.
And suddenly the broken list everyone was talking about has won three straight. Capped off by knocking off your DeLong. Your DeLong, a premiership favourite on Friday night. Funny that, Gerrard. It turns out the players, they can run. The players, they can defend. And it turns out they can actually play four quarters of football.
The only thing that changed, Gerrard, was the voice on the coach's box. Now, the media are asking what's changed at Carlton. I'll tell you what's changed, Gerard. I'll tell you what's changed. Accountability's finally showed up. Because for years, we weren't unlucky.
We were undercoached. And to the Carlton supporters who've been coming at me for years, calling me negative, dramatic, over the top, you weren't watching closely enough. This wasn't a rebuild. It's a reset waiting to happen. While we're here, Gerard, let's keep it real. Charlie Kernow, he's easily the biggest downhill skier in the game, and he should be embarrassed.
He kicked eight goals against Richmond on Saturday, and everyone calls him the best forward in the game. But where's he at when it actually matters? He did the same thing in his Coleman medal years at Carlton, kicking 10 goals twice against West Coast, and then goes missing in finals. Big bags against bottom four sides. They don't win you flags. They just inflate your reputation, Gerrard.
While I'm at it, a quick shout-out to TDK and the Saints listeners. Yep, I told you all on a call last year, be careful what you wish for. He's not worth $1 million, let alone $1.7 million. And please, I call that for Essendon, the board.
Appoint James Hurd as coach so that comedy hour at the hangar can continue for another five years. We all know the definition of insanity, Gerrard.
And before I go, a quick personal update for you and all the listeners. I'm heading off to Greece, mate, for 10 weeks. And if history tells us anything, colour supporters should be very, very excited. Because you may recall, Gerrard, you referred just earlier to 2023. I went to Greece for seven weeks mid-season and Carlton came home like a freight train.
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Chapter 4: How are the current standings affecting team strategies?
And he has just performed just fantastic.
And he has, you know, a couple of bad games and he's finished. But I just love the bloke. Good on you, Dom.
Good on you. It's lovely to hear your snap judgment on a sunnier Monday morning. It might be the start of winter, but the Blues are just coming out of hibernation. Jake's on the road. Hello, Jake. G'day, Gerry. How are you? I'm well. On Saturday morning on Crunch Time, you made a sensational comment. You said, the fail safe has failed.
I know you were talking about the ARC and the goal review system. I've just got a little comment to make and then I've got three very short questions for you. In other sports around the world, Gerard, I'm thinking basketball.
When a referee gives a three-pointer, the basketball shoots a three-pointer, they go back and have a look at the line, the guy's foot's on the line, they take a point off the score. It could be a quarter time, could be anywhere through the game. At rugby league, when a try is awarded...
they go to the bunker, they put the four points on the score, and if the bunker sees the try is not there, they take the four points off the score. Even in golf, Gerard, if you make a mistake and a referee sees you make a mistake through the round, you can have scores added to your scorecard at the end of the game.
Why on Friday night did we A, not stop the game to correct that goal for Oli Dempsey? And if it was a goal, which it turned out to be, as you quite rightly pointed out on Saturday morning, if the fail safe has failed, why couldn't they readjust the scores at quarter time to get a true result? Because all we want is the right result, Gerard. So my three questions for you are this, mate.
Who is stuffing this up? How do we change it? And do you think in your lifetime or anyone's lifetime, especially if it was a grand final, would the result be changed at the end of the game? Those are long questions. I might just answer it with this, Jake.
Whoever's doing these programs in 20 years' time will still be talking about how the technology in sport routinely fails in the hands of humans. And that's why I'm just not a believer. I'm not a believer. And the sequence of events that led us to what happened on Friday night is Greg Swan put in the provision to specifically correct this.
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Chapter 5: What insights does Adam Simpson provide on team progress?
Yeah, we're middle of the road. That's a reality. Process driven tonight. I think most of the processes were good. We're a work in progress. I think there's some real growth in front of us. We always say that. What we're playing now, we think we're going to be better. About six weeks ago, you would have thought, Yeah, we're heading towards the bottom of the ladder.
We played the top four teams that are sitting on the ladder now. We took them all to the line, barring the Cats, who taught us a lesson.
Chapter 6: How has Collingwood's performance affected their season outlook?
But our best is good enough. And we're just going to make sure we're playing a bit more of our best, more consistently.
And that's the debate, I think. Their best is not good enough. But where do they actually sit? Can they morph into something more within season? They are even-steven. So they're 11th. They're half a game the wrong side of the ledger. Their percentage is still 99.9, which is a recurring theme. They are bog average.
Yeah.
Chapter 7: What are the implications of player injuries for team dynamics?
And I think they're trying their backsides off too. It's not like they're just dialing it in and good players aren't playing well. I think Fly's getting the best out of this group, which is the worry. Um, and they've got a few injuries, so there's always that caveat in the background and how you deal with that, but.
You know, what are they going to be in two years is something that you think about now if you're back office list management. Where are we going to be in two years? Because right now, you can't say that they're going to be pushing for top six this year. So what does it look like in the longer term? What are they going to do with some of their senior players?
All those type of conversations is the back office conversation. It's funny when you're a senior coach, you've got to separate yourself from winning this week to a list. You've got to go to a list management meeting. And they go, look, we're thinking... So-and-so should probably, you know, we should probably move him on and we'll get him and we're looking at him.
And so what's their five-year plan, Gerard? And what's the plan this year to be competitive and try and win every week? I think, I don't think their best, their best is so spirited. Like I think he's coached really well in the last month, the Sydney game, the strategy. So there's still terrible clearances. It's just, you can't be 18th at something.
and think you're going to be competitive in finals, especially something as big as clearances. So, yeah, they got touched up on the weekend around that area in particular. They came pretty good in the last quarter.
Yeah, they were going to get beaten by eight goals at one stage. And there they were, you know, a Michael Selwood mark away from having a shot to win it.
Yeah, and then the question is, why can't they play like that all the time? I hear that a lot. And I reckon he would have said that to them. Boys, why don't we do that at the start of the game next week? Let's play in a way... that really throws caution to the wind. But it's hard to do when you're a player and just to be brave and risk making mistakes.
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Chapter 8: What does Gerard's final analysis reveal about the team's future?
I don't know. There's just something in our psyche that you don't want to look like an idiot. At the start of a game where you think, oh, he's not going for that. Everyone's too switched on. And if I turn that over, you just can't stop thinking like that sometimes. But out of all the coaches, he's probably the one that goes, no, make a mistake or I'm going to drop you. That type of mindset.
I think that's how I feel when, if I was playing under fly. So getting the best out of the group's not the issue. It's how good's the group. That's probably where I sit with that. Jordan Ngoi was outstanding. Yeah. Well, there's another one. I mean, he's, he's, he's, he's tracking to have a really good year. He's starting to really grow now as a player, but who's coming with him?
Who's the A graders outside of Dacos? you know, Degoe, there's a few others there, but they, where's side bottom at? Where's Pendlebury at for next year? These are serious questions where you can say, we're just going to let the player decide because we'll back in just too much of a champion, but we're going to have to have some conversations. Um,
I'm assuming there's good self-awareness with some of these aging players, but sometimes there's not. Sometimes I think I can play forever. So yeah, it's a watch your space. Um, I don't know how they get better at some of the areas they're not good at, you know, how do you get better at clearances when your, your ruck stocks are probably a little bit limited what you wanted to with Steen.
Um, yeah, so just, there's a bit of work to do there, but I'm not sure if they've got the answers. Um, That I've been proven wrong with Collingwood before. We all have. So it just doesn't feel the same. No.
So they sit 11th at the moment. They're the wrong side of the dividing line. And it's going to, we half referenced this on Saturday. It's going to be a big miss to miss a 10. Bit different to missing an eight. Ninth was always, you know, the framing up of ninth. 11th is going to, it's a big disappointment to miss a 10.
11 and 12. Yeah. is the, what we call it, Death Valley. Yeah. And, um, from a, you know, draft position for the year after, and then just to miss the 10, um, but let's not, um, you know, I'm not going to predict they're not going to make the, make the 10. I suppose the question is, does it really matter for Collingwood? We're talking, oh, you don't want to play Brisbane.
You don't want to play the Giants if they're on a run. I don't know where Collingwood are going to be if they, are they going to be, they've slipped into 10th? Or are they going to get on a run? And we've seen them, you know, they're not winning the close ones as much though. They've lost that aura. Yes. Yes. Yeah.
That's kind of the Bulldogs. They're winning the close ones. They're winning the close ones. So five one-goal results. It's the reason they're in the season. That's right. Seven wins, they're seventh. So if we had a private correspondent who said, PFI, you need to rethink whether that's top six integrity. It's not as snappy as preliminary final integrity.
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