Oil Slides in Wild Trading After Trump Suggests Iran War Could End Soon
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Plus, Anthropic sues the Trump administration for trying to end its contracts with the federal government. And could Pixar's latest movie be the big new franchise Disney wants? It's Monday, March 9th. I'm Alex Osola for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. It's been a wild day for oil prices, which sank 20 percent from their peak last night and then fell 5 percent more in after-hours trading. One big reason? The Group of Seven advanced economies is prepared to release strategic oil reserves if they're needed to stabilize the market. And then CBS News reported that President Trump said he believes that, quote, the war is very complete, pretty much.
At the pump, though, many Americans are already feeling the squeeze. Gas prices have climbed 17 percent to an average $3.48 a gallon since the war started. Some experts are predicting that it could hit $4 a gallon by the weekend. And of course, people are posting about gas prices on social media. So regular has gone up about 70 cents in a week or so, which is kind of crazy. Prices over here, $4.79 on the regular price. $4.79 on the regular, extra $5.59. Guys, if you have not gotten gas, you may want to because they're even saying tomorrow that the gas prices are going to go up. To discuss what this means for markets, I'm joined by WSJ reporter David Uberti. David, in late trading, the U.S. oil benchmark was dropping below $90, down from a high of $119 a barrel.
What does that tell us about traders' state of mind? In short, that nobody knows what's happening or what the outlook is going forward.
What caused the dramatic drop in oil prices?
This is some of the wildest commodity trading on record, and it just speaks to the uncertainty in the market of how long the conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East is going to go and the extent to which that's going to actually snarl physical supplies of oil that manufacturers, farmers, and different types of companies around the world really rely on. And who is benefiting from this huge run-up in oil prices? The winners in the market are the companies that produce oil that are not in the line of fire. So if you're an oil producer in West Texas or New Mexico, you are about to get a windfall profit from some of these price increases that we are seeing. And obviously, the longer it goes on, the more that will boost their bottom lines.
The losers are everyone else who consumes oil, construction crews, manufacturers, oil Big farming companies, oil and all of the byproducts that are created when we produce it go into basically every facet of the modern economy. In addition, natural gas is a very key input for a lot of manufacturers around the world. They are going to experience price increases, if not already. What is the worst case scenario that analysts are envisioning? I mean, Iran is threatening $200 a barrel for oil. Is that possible or even likely? It's certainly possible. The extent to which it's likely is really an open question right now. Major analysts that we follow suggest that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for weeks longer, it could push prices up to $150 a barrel.
And that will have a really big impact on U.S. economic growth and U.S. inflation expectations.
How is the conflict in Iran affecting global oil markets?
That's bad for markets broadly. Yeah.
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