Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Access to affordable credit helps me pay my employees, but I don't really need it. Inflation is killing me. But who cares? Big retailers are making record profits. That's why we support the Durbin Marshall credit card bill. See? Banks and credit unions help small businesses make payroll. This bill would cut the vital resources they need. While increasing megastore profits.
They deserve it, don't they?
Tell Congress, stop the Durbin Marshall money grab for corporate megastores. Paid for by the Electronic Payments Coalition. President Trump announces a new plan for opening the Strait of Hormuz, but traders seem unconvinced. Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant eBay. And the journal reveals why most prediction market bets end in a loss.
Kalshi and Polymarket have pitched themselves as this everyman's platform, where anyone can monetize their beliefs and win. But what they don't mention is that you'll probably lose.
It's Monday, May 4th. I'm Daniel Bach for The Wall Street Journal, filling in for Luke Vargas. And here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. President Trump has said the U.S. would begin guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz today in an effort to unblock the waterway.
But critics point to how the plan doesn't involve naval escorts. Instead, Project Freedom allows for countries, insurance companies, and shippers to coordinate in a bid to get traffic flowing through the strait. For now, though, oil traders appear unconvinced it will resolve a supply crunch that has sent prices soaring. Futures tied to Brent crude rose above $109 a barrel this morning.
And those higher oil prices have led to a surge in fuel costs for airlines, with the sector this weekend claiming its first victim of the war. Spirit Airlines is shut down after bailout talks with the Trump administration failed. Before the war in Iran, the low-cost carrier had plans to get out of bankruptcy. But with its jet fuel more than doubling since, the airline couldn't pull through.
Like many affected travelers, Journal reporter Dean Seale had a flight already on the books. He's looked into what customers need to know following the airline's closure. The airline said all flights have been canceled and that it will automatically process refunds for tickets bought with a credit or debit card.
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Chapter 2: What recent announcement did President Trump make regarding the Strait of Hormuz?
Customers can go to SpiritRestructuring.com for more information. The Department of Transportation said Saturday that several airlines are offering a mix of capped and reduced fares for impacted Spirit customers.
United, Delta, JetBlue, and Southwest are capping their ticket prices for Spirit customers. It's going to vary between the airlines. You have to go to their websites to take advantage of these special offers. It is normally going to be about $200 for a one-way ticket.
Chapter 3: How is GameStop positioning itself in the e-commerce market?
That was US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. Another sector suffering from the war in Iran is the auto industry. The war is driving up US aluminum prices by choking off critical shipments from the Persian Gulf. Combined with a 50% tariff and a major supplier outage, the cost of primary aluminum from smelters is nearly 90% higher than a year ago.
Chapter 4: Why do most prediction market bets end in a loss?
The supply crunch leaves the auto industry facing a severe shortage for a metal that has become critical for truck building.
The automotive industry depends on aluminum because it's lightweight, and the more you use, the better your fuel economy is because you're taking weight out of a vehicle.
That's Journal reporter Bob Tita, who covers the metals industry. He says that the pain is especially acute at Ford. Aluminum is used in the best-selling vehicle in the U.S., the F-150 pickup.
Chapter 5: What platforms are popular for prediction markets and what do they claim?
So Ford is the biggest user of aluminum from the plant in Oswego, New York, operated by Novellus, and it can't get enough aluminum. It's caused a slowdown in production of the F-150s, so there's dealers that are nervous about having enough trucks to sell, particularly now in the summer months. There's been some discussion about
particularly in the steel industry, would automotive companies start to use more steel because it's somewhat less expensive and there's a lot of it in the United States. It's not something that can be done quickly. Ford last week said that it expects its commodity cost to increase by about $2 billion this year. Most of that comes from paying more for aluminum, according to the company.
Ford recently asked the Trump administration to waive the 50 percent tariff on imported aluminum until its primary supplier, the Oswego plant, returns to full service.
Chapter 6: What are the statistics on user losses in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket?
So far, administration officials have refused to budge on the request. In markets news, we're exclusively reporting that GameStop has made an unsolicited offer to buy eBay for about $56 billion. In an interview with the journal, GameStop CEO Brian Cohen said eBay can be a much bigger rival to Amazon.
He said GameStop has built a roughly 5% stake in eBay and that if the e-commerce company isn't receptive to the proposal, he's prepared to launch a proxy fight and take the offer directly to its shareholders.
We report GameStop is offering a roughly 20% premium to eBay's Friday closing price, and that the video game company has a commitment letter from TD Bank to provide up to $20 billion in debt financing to help make a deal possible.
And Anthropic is finalizing a deal to create a joint venture with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and a handful of other Wall Street firms to sell AI tools to companies backed by private equity. All told, about $1.5 billion is expected to be committed. The company would act as a consulting arm for Anthropic to help teach businesses how to incorporate AI across their operations.
Anthropic, Blackstone, and Hellman & Friedman are anchoring the deal, which could be announced as soon as today. Coming up, prediction markets have become wildly popular, even though almost everyone is losing. That story and more after the break.
Agentic AI uses intelligence systems, or agents, that can reason, plan, and act with minimal human input to achieve defined goals. Jason Gerzades, CEO of Deloitte US, says businesses are already leveraging the possibilities.
whether that's in software and code development or contact center processing. Standardized processes with existing data that can be highly automated are where we're seeing the most impact. It's a way to empower teams to reimagine business processes in a way that can be really energizing and differentiating for organizations.
The amount of money traded on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has surged over the past year, with users trying to hit it big by betting on sports, celebrities, and sometimes seemingly random or very specific news. But now a journal investigation has found that most people are losing money on prediction markets. Neil Mehta is one of three journalists who led the investigation.
Kalshi and Polymarket have pitched themselves as this everyman's platform, where anyone can monetize their beliefs and win. There's this one ad on Kalshi that features a young woman who said she was about to not be able to pay her rent, but then made a bunch of money on Kalshi. And the message from these ads is that you too can win. But what they don't mention is that you'll probably lose.
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