After Midterms, November Packs a Market-Moving Punch
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
With your money briefing, I'm J.R. Whalen at The Wall Street Journal in New York. You might think the midterm elections will be followed by a well-deserved period free of discord and events that could rock the markets. Well, think again. The midterms actually kick off a busy November being closely watched by investors. We'll put the spotlight on November, which includes the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting in a moment. First, these money and market stories you should know. Unfilled jobs in the U.S.
How did U.S. job openings and unemployment trends look heading into November?
exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by more than a million at the end of the summer. There were a seasonally adjusted 7.01 million job openings in the last business day of September, and that compares to 5.96 million jobless Americans actively looking for work during the month, and the unemployment rate fell to a 49-year low of 3.7%. Before March, job openings had never exceeded unemployed workers in more than 17 years of monthly records. Most of the decline in openings occurred in the South, which was hit by Hurricane Florence in mid-September. Tuesday's report showed openings increased in September in the transportation, warehousing and utility sectors and in the health care field. There are also fewer openings in construction, manufacturing, and finance.
And the decision by Amazon to split its second headquarters among two cities brings to light the lack of available tech talent in the U.S. Combined, computer and information sciences and engineering accounted for just 9% of the 1.92 million bachelor's degrees awarded in 2016. Amazon and other big global tech companies have worked around the shortage of U.S. tech talent in the U.S., by employing students in the optional practical training program, which allows international students to work in the U.S. for one year after graduation.
Why is the shortage of U.S. tech talent affecting corporate location decisions like Amazon's HQ2?
The program is seen as a stepping stone to the coveted H-1B visas, which the government caps at $85,000 for private employers each year. President Trump has ordered a review of the H-1B visa program, but hasn't yet cut the number of visas available.
The midterm elections are behind us, but for investors, breathing a sigh of relief might be a bit premature. November packs a busy schedule of events that are likely to impact markets. And Wall Street Journal reporter Amrith Ramkamar is here to spell it out for us. So, Amrith, let's start with the Federal Reserve. They've got a busy month ahead, starting with the day after Election Day.
Absolutely. They have their two-day meeting for November, like you mentioned, coming up. And people aren't expecting anything major, to be honest with you, at this meeting. But it's really the signals ahead of next month's meeting where a lot of people are expecting another rate increase. And the thing that people are really worried about, I guess, is the moves in treasury yields that kind of coincide with the Fed's signals in the next month or so. So while some people expect just the same kind of chatter about gradual rate increases, I It really moves in the bond market and even the currency market with the stronger dollar that are getting a lot of attention and could cause some further stock market swings like we saw last month.
What November events should investors watch beyond the midterms?
You know, the market has pretty much built in and baked in a rate increase in December. But it really is, I guess, how the Fed views the pace of the health of the economy, but also how the market is reacting and responding to that.
I think that's definitely fair to say, especially after last month. There is kind of uncertainty, I guess you could say, about how the Fed views the recent volatility. We have seen stocks come back a little bit and people expect that to stabilize. But like you mentioned, it's really the pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter. And again, all of this is happening with this background of trade chatter with the Group of 20 summit later this month. And President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China are supposed to meet there in Argentina. So it's, again, how the Fed views the pace of economic growth at the end of this year.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:05–0:31
2
How did U.S. job openings and unemployment trends look heading into November?
0:31–1:51
3
Why is the shortage of U.S. tech talent affecting corporate location decisions like Amazon's HQ2?
1:51–3:13
4
What November events should investors watch beyond the midterms?
3:13–4:20
5
How might the Federal Reserve's November meeting and signals influence markets?
4:20–5:57
6
How could the G20 meeting and U.S.-China trade talks move markets in late November?
5:57–7:22
7
What are the likely market effects of restored Iran sanctions on oil and energy stocks?
7:22–7:39
8
How should investors position portfolios amid converging risks through year-end?
7:39–7:44
Speakers
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