Bank Earnings: Look Deeper for Warning Signs
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What headlines and market briefs open this Money Briefing?
With your money briefing, I'm J.R. Whalen at The Wall Street Journal in New York. Big banks have reported mostly positive earnings figures this week, but look a little deeper in those reports and there are signs the economic tide is turning. We'll shed some light on those details in a moment. First, these money and market stories you should know. The IRS says it will bump up its staff on hand from 10,000 to about 46,000 during the government shutdown to work during the tax filing season, which begins on January 28th.
How will the IRS operate during a government shutdown and tax season?
And in a reversal of operations during past shutdowns, the agency will issue tax refunds. But most audits and collections will not move forward while the shutdown continues. The CVS pharmacy chain says that pharmacies located inside Walmart stores are expected to leave the CVS Caremark pharmacy network in a dispute over pricing. CVS asked Walmart to remain part of its network until the end of April, though Walmart says it might move up that date to early February. A couple of caveats here.
Why is CVS and Walmart's pharmacy dispute significant for consumers?
CVS says the dispute only involves Walmart and not Sam's Club, which is Walmart's chain of warehouse stores. Also, CVS says the Walmart dispute doesn't affect pharmacy networks in its Medicare plans. And the actors Maggie Gyllenhaal and Peter Sarsgaard are listing their townhouse in Brooklyn's Park Slope neighborhood in New York for about $4.6 million.
What notable real-estate listing and home features were highlighted?
They purchased the 3,600 square foot four-level property in 2006 for $1.9 million. The townhouse includes a den and kitchen on the first floor, a master suite on the third level, along with two bedrooms for the couple's daughters on the top floor. And if it's a good night for staying in, head to the second floor with your popcorn. There's a movie projector there that drops from the ceiling.
Look at the record low unemployment rate.
What warning signs did Aaron Back find in big bank earnings?
Look at the stock market since January 1st. And it seems like the economy is still clicking on all cylinders. But look deeper and there might be a different story. And investors should pay attention. Heard on the street columnist Aaron Back is with us to explain. So Aaron, oftentimes as they say, the devil is in the details. And in this case, in earnings reports issued by the big banks so far this week, you're particularly concerned about reduced growth reported from specifically loans.
Yeah, the concern is that we're kind of past the peak in the economy. Not that things are terrible, but that things are going to start slowing down. And there is some evidence of that in the bank earnings. Most notably, JP Morgan, which reported on Tuesday, had loan growth of just 1% in commercial and industrial loans, which is its main business loan book. And as recently as 2017, that was running around 7%, 8%. So there's been a real slowdown. And they say, you know, that's partially because we're being codified. We're picking and choosing where we want to loan. It's partially because GDP growth is slowing. So it does indicate some slowdown.
And with regard to JP Morgan, it reported an increase in loan loss reserves. And that sounds like a Wall Street technical term, but it can tell us a lot about people defaulting on loans.
Well, it tells us they're expecting defaults ahead.
How do loan growth, reserves, and mortgage originations signal economic slowdown?
Loan loss reserves is what they set aside in preparation for defaults in the future. And so they increase their reserves in both credit cards and business lending. And so that is a sign that actually defaults have been very, very low for the past few years, historically low. So that is not going to last forever. And the banks are getting ready for that to change.
So you put it away for a rainy day, the rainy day being when people can't pay off their credit cards. Correct. And there was a lot of bad news, good news in the earnings out so far. And there was a positive note, Wells Fargo reporting a jump in commercial and industrial loans.
Right. So commercial industrial loans is what slowed down the most at J.P. Morgan. It really picked up at Wells Fargo, but... Wells Fargo's chief financial officer explained that that had some very specific causes.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What headlines and market briefs open this Money Briefing?
0:05–0:34
2
How will the IRS operate during a government shutdown and tax season?
0:34–1:03
3
Why is CVS and Walmart's pharmacy dispute significant for consumers?
1:03–1:24
4
What notable real-estate listing and home features were highlighted?
1:24–1:57
5
What warning signs did Aaron Back find in big bank earnings?
1:57–3:13
6
How do loan growth, reserves, and mortgage originations signal economic slowdown?
3:13–4:26
7
Are banks prepared for rising defaults and what does it mean for the economy?
4:26–5:58
Speakers
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