Expecting a Big Raise in 2023? Don’t Bet On It.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing 6 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 2 months ago
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Unknown (advertisement voice) 0:00
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J.R. Whalen 0:33
Here's your money briefing for Thursday, May 4th.

What are current expectations for pay raises and bonuses in 2023?

J.R. Whalen 0:36
I'm J.R. Whelan for The Wall Street Journal. Over the past several years, many employees got used to asking for and getting substantial pay raises. But 2023 is a much different numbers game for companies and in turn for workers planning to get a hefty bump in their paycheck this year.

How are companies actually budgeting for salary increases this year?

Ray A. Smith 0:53
With recession fears and mass layoffs of white-collar jobs, there are a lot of factors that are going to why companies don't feel the pressure to dole out raises or bonuses as they have been doing.
J.R. Whalen 1:07
We'll talk to Wall Street Journal reporter Ray Smith after the break.
Unknown (advertisement voice) 1:17
This podcast is brought to you by ReliaQuest. Cyber criminals are constantly attacking.

Why are employers scaling back raises amid recession fears and layoffs?

Unknown (advertisement voice) 1:22
They want your data. They want your identity.

How could smaller raises affect worker–employer relationships?

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They want your innovation. ReliaQuest fortifies your business with agentic defense, AI that detects, contains, and eliminates cyber threats in minutes. It helps your security team move faster at the work that matters most to protect the business now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest, agentic defense for the enterprise.

What is the outlook for off‑calendar raises and sporadic bonuses?

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Learn more at ReliaQuest.com. That's R-E-L-I-A-Q-U-E-S-T.com.
J.R. Whalen 1:58
Many workers have high expectations for raises in 2023, but those hopes for a fatter paycheck are likely to be met with disappointment. Wall Street Journal reporter Ray Smith is here to discuss plans by some employers to scale back.

How should employees make a case for a raise when budgets are tight?

J.R. Whalen 2:12
So, Ray, let's talk numbers. What kind of raises are employees expecting this year?
Ray A. Smith 2:16
According to a survey of thousands of employees conducted in the fall by ADP, 62% said they were confident that they would get a pay raise from their current employers in the next 12 months, and 41% were confident they would receive a bonus. So that's a lot of workers expecting to get pay raises or bonuses.

What alternatives can workers negotiate besides higher pay?

Ray A. Smith 2:38
And 10% of those workers expect a salary increase of over 15% in the next 12 months.
J.R. Whalen 2:45
All right, and so what's the reality check? What are companies budgeting for, and why are they scaling back?
Ray A. Smith 2:50
Companies are budgeting slightly smaller annual merit increases in total compensation packages for 2023 than they projected they would when they were surveyed in November. They planned annual merit increases of 3.8% and 4.1% on average. And now that's slightly below the 3.9% and 4.3% they projected in November. The labor market is cooling, so companies don't feel as much pressure to use raises and bonuses as a retention tool. And companies are tightening belts amid economic uncertainty. You know, with recession fears and mass layoffs of white-collar jobs, the cooling jobs market, even falling inflation and housing prices, there are a lot of factors that are going into why companies don't feel the pressure to dole out raises or bonuses as they have been doing over the past two to three years.
J.R. Whalen 3:41
But at many companies over the past several years, workers have gotten used to hefty raises being offered by companies. How could this affect the relationship between workers and their employers?
Ray A. Smith 3:52
There's long been tension between workers and employers, so this doesn't help. Pay is a major gripe for employees, and we've already had tensions over everything from work-life balance and return to office. So this definitely doesn't help, especially because, as we said, over the past two years, workers were accustomed to seeing these raises and bonuses, and now it's just another thing that's being taken away from them.
J.R. Whalen 4:19
Over the past two years, it was pretty common for companies to give out raises during the year, not just at the usual time on the calendar when companies have scheduled raises to go out.

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