For Many U.S. Cities, the Economic Boom Is Over

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WSJ Your Money Briefing 6 min 2 speakers 6 chapters transcribed 2 months ago
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How widespread is the post-recession downturn in U.S. cities?

J.R. Whelan 0:05
Here's your Money Briefing. I'm J.R. Whelan at The Wall Street Journal in New York. For hundreds of small cities and towns across the country, the economic boom that followed the 2008 recession has faded away.
Heather Gillers 0:17
Even though there were 10 years of real growth, the hole that many cities were in and the debt that they were carrying on their books made it really difficult, even through a 10-year recovery, to get back to a really comfortable place of fiscal stability.
J.R. Whelan 0:37
Wall Street Journal reporter Heather Gillers joins us to explain what brought on the financial troubles, and she'll spotlight a city that went through it and recovered. That's after the break.
J.R. Whelan 0:53
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data from nearly 500 municipalities across the U.S. shows that after years of post-recession economic expansion, a downturn has begun. Towns and cities are seeing revenue shortfalls and are losing jobs.

How did the 2008 crisis create long-term fiscal damage for smaller municipalities?

J.R. Whelan 1:08
And Wall Street Journal reporter Heather Gillers is on the line with us with details. So, Heather, did the financial windfall brought on by the economic recovery just pretty much act as a Band-Aid for some cities?
Heather Gillers 1:18
Yeah, that's a good way to put it. It drove up spending in many places. More people were employed. There were all kinds of fringe benefits for local governments in terms of sales taxes and property taxes. But in some ways made it harder to see the real damage that a lot of these cities sustained during the financial crisis and the recession period. There was sort of a one-two punch in the sense that the crisis hit pension funds, which many, many local governments maintained and jacked up the contributions that they have to make out of their annual budgets. pretty much hit those cities and school districts and other local governments right away. Then there was sort of a lag effect where property values also fell, you know, as a result of the housing market crash.

Which regions and types of cities are hardest hit by revenue shortfalls and population loss?

Heather Gillers 2:11
That takes a little bit of time to really hit government budgets because it takes time for counties to assess the value of properties and to then revise them downward. But once that happens, it has a really profound and long-lasting effect on cities because property taxes are the biggest source of revenue for cities.
J.R. Whelan 2:32
What were the regions of the country this was going on in?
Heather Gillers 2:35
Well, the hardest hit regions have been the Midwest and the Northeast. We're seeing... fewer cities expecting a significant increase in revenue, you know, an increase that outpaces inflation all around the country, even in the South and West. But those areas tend to be more resilient because of population growth generally and because of the industries that flourish there in the Midwest and in many parts of the Northeast. On the other hand, cities are still trying to recover from closures of manufacturing, factories, industry moving away.

How did pension losses and falling property values compound municipal budget problems?

Heather Gillers 3:14
And then many cities are also losing population. You know, Chicago is losing population and many smaller cities in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, along with Pennsylvania, other northeastern areas.
J.R. Whelan 3:28
So Heather, a lot of these smaller towns and municipalities, they had an enormous hole to dig themselves out of.
Heather Gillers 3:34
That's really key here. I mean, it's hard to overestimate the damage to governments as a result of the recession. And so even though there were 10 years of real growth,

What happened in Harvey, Illinois, and how did it illustrate long-term decline?

Heather Gillers 3:46
The hole that many cities were in and the debt that they were carrying on their books made it really difficult, even through a 10-year recovery, to get back to a really comfortable place of fiscal stability. In our story, we spotlight a town called Harvey, Illinois, where the deterioration really began 50 years ago in the 70s and 80s when factories started closing, people started moving away. That town took a really serious hit in the recession and then was able to hang on through the past decade as revenue started to go up, jobs started to go up. Those types of growth factors helped the city paper over really severe increases in liability and deterioration in property values, which have never recovered from the recession before.
Heather Gillers 4:43
Now the city is starting to see contraction again.

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