Jobs Openings Have Leveled Off, But There's Still Hope
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Here's your Money Briefing for Thursday, September 10th. I'm J.R. Whalen for The Wall Street Journal. At 8.4%, the unemployment rate has improved considerably since peaking above 10% in the early weeks of the pandemic. But that momentum may be leveling off.
What is the current state of job openings after the summer plateau?
It means that there's not going to be as many new opportunities for workers. And that's a big concern when the unemployment rate, while it's down from this spring, still above 8%. And that's a historically high number.
Our economics reporter Eric Morath will tell us what the job market looks like now. That's after the break.
It's been a slow recovery for the job market since the pandemic forced many businesses to shut down. But after cities started reopening and job openings ramped up early this summer, the number of open positions leveled off in July.
How did job postings change between February and early May during the pandemic?
Our economics reporter Eric Morath has been going through the numbers and he joins us to discuss. So Eric, job postings have plateaued, but are they still at a healthy number?
Well, the number has improved a lot from where we were in the beginning of May, which was sort of the depths of the drop-off and job postings following the coronavirus and the economic shock. It's still, though, I wouldn't say healthy. We're about 20% below a year ago figures based on what Indeed.com shared with us of the postings on their website. We're still quite a bit down from a year ago, and that's a concern when we have upwards of 10 million people still unemployed.
Now take us through the past six months with regard to job openings. The job market has been through some serious gyrations.
Six months ago, it was a much different story. Job openings were near record highs, and the number of job openings outnumbered the number of people that were unemployed, meaning they didn't have a job, but they were actively seeking work.
Why have job postings flattened since late July and what does flatlining signal?
Of course, that all changed quite dramatically in March and April when wide swaths of the U.S. economy closed down due to the coronavirus pandemic. We saw, according to Indeed again, job postings fall 33% between February and early May. Then things started to pick up a bit. You know, businesses reopened. They had some additional need for labor.
Which industries have recovered postings and which remain weak?
And we saw postings climb back up to, you know, still more than 10% less than they were in February, which itself is kind of a low point of the year for hiring. But, you know... climbing back. The concern is now that since the end of July, beginning part of August, it's kind of just flattened out. And that means, you know, I guess it's better than the number falling again, but it shows that businesses, you know, don't have an increasing demand for labor.
You know, Eric, what kind of signal do job postings give about the economy?
Are job gains in logistics and construction high-quality opportunities?
Yeah, they're a bit of a forward-looking signal, so that's why this is a concern. If businesses are optimistic that consumer demand will grow, that there's going to be more people wanting their goods and services, you'd see postings increase. Seeing them flatlining suggests that businesses are being a little bit more cautious. Maybe they'll stick with the employees they have. It doesn't foretell layoffs, but it means that there's not going to be as many new opportunities for workers. And that's a big concern when the unemployment rate, while it's down from this spring, is
Could pandemic-era job losses be permanent for restaurants and retail?
still above 8%, and that's a historically high number.
And as postings increased and even as they've leveled off, where have we seen the most job growth?
The job growth has come in a few different spots. Two categories stand out as having, in terms of postings, fully made up their losses, and that's in construction, and we're seeing a lot of strength in residential home building. That had been an area that had been a bit iffy over the past decade and seems to be at least having a mini boom now as people are interested in having more space, maybe moving out to the suburbs. The other area that's strong is anything dealing with logistics, warehousing, stocking. Those job postings are up because people are purchasing things online and you need to get that to their door and it's a little different than the regular retail.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:05–0:20
2
What is the current state of job openings after the summer plateau?
0:20–0:58
3
How did job postings change between February and early May during the pandemic?
0:58–2:01
4
Why have job postings flattened since late July and what does flatlining signal?
2:01–2:25
5
Which industries have recovered postings and which remain weak?
2:25–2:58
6
Are job gains in logistics and construction high-quality opportunities?
2:58–3:27
7
Could pandemic-era job losses be permanent for restaurants and retail?
3:27–5:29
8
What hopeful signs do Labor Department data show about rehiring and layoffs?
5:29–6:58
Speakers
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