Mortgage Rates Fall to Another Record Low

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WSJ Your Money Briefing 5 min 2 speakers 6 chapters transcribed 2 months ago
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How did mortgage rates reach a record-low 2.98% this week?

J.R. Whalen 0:05
Here's your Money Briefing for Friday, July 17th. I'm J.R. Whelan for The Wall Street Journal. The pandemic has upended the housing market. Sales are down, prices are up, and the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to a record low 2.98% this week. That's the third straight week rates have hit a new low.
Orla McCaffrey 0:24
For people who can take advantage of these low rates, you can save hundreds of thousands of dollars on your monthly payment over the course of your 30-year loan. So it really is a good time to lock something in or even wait for a couple of months down the road.
J.R. Whalen 0:37
So how long until rates start creeping back up again?

What historical trend explains why mortgage rates have been falling for decades?

J.R. Whalen 0:40
And why aren't potential homebuyers capitalizing on low rates while they can? We'll check in with our reporter Orla McCaffrey after the break.
J.R. Whalen 0:55
Mortgage rates have been trending lower recently, but this week rates fell below 3% for the first time since record keeping began a half a century ago. Could rates go even lower? Let's bring in reporter Orla McCaffrey for some answers. So Orla, how long have mortgage rates been trending lower?

Why do economists expect mortgage rates to stay low or fall further in the next 3–6 months?

Orla McCaffrey 1:12
So historically, rates reached their highest rate, 18.6%, if you can believe it, in October 1981, after the Fed raised short-term rates in order to combat inflation. So since then, they've been trending down. More recently, the last decline we've seen has been from about the fall of 2018, and then an acceleration in that decline starting this year.
J.R. Whalen 1:35
Do economists expect rates to remain low for an extended period of time?
Orla McCaffrey 1:38
Yes, and they even expect them to go lower here in the next three to six months. And that's because the gap between mortgage rates and this other indicator that influences them in a major way, the 10-year treasury yield is unusually wide. And because there's that much space, as that space narrows, rates will fall even further.
J.R. Whalen 1:58
Now, what do these record low rates tell us about the state of the housing industry?
Orla McCaffrey 2:01
On the surface, the housing industry looks resilient as rates are low and there's still a lot of demand for new homes.

What do record-low mortgage rates reveal about the underlying state of the housing market?

Orla McCaffrey 2:10
But a little deeper down, sales really have fallen this spring as people don't want to move out of their homes during the pandemic, which creates a really terribly short inventory of homes in what was already a really constricted market. So while low mortgage rates are good for potential homebuyers, there are still a ton of obstacles that people have to get over before they can take advantage of those rates.
J.R. Whalen 2:34
So even though people have wanted to stay in their homes, what kind of activity are we seeing in the market?
Orla McCaffrey 2:39
march and april when you know the pandemic hit its first height people were really staying home existing home sales which is a good measure of housing market activity were down double digits year over year but that has since picked up there are signs that's picking up in june with mortgage applications and some of that pent-up demand coming back as people get more comfortable going out and touring homes but that is expected to to wane after the summer
J.R. Whalen 3:03
Well, this is great news for homebuyers, but are people actually able to take advantage of these rates and buy homes?
Orla McCaffrey 3:08
The rising prices does put homebuyers in a tough spot. They can only take advantage of these low mortgage rates if they can afford the homes in the first place. The rates make the homes cheaper over the long term with the lower interest rates, but you still need a good chunk of the down payment up front, and that's larger when prices are rising.
J.R. Whalen 3:26
You know, I'm thinking about Connecticut, which is hoping to capitalize on people's interest in moving away from cities and places like New York and Boston. There's a lot riding on this.
Orla McCaffrey 3:35
Communities like that, you know, within commuting distance from major cities are definitely in line to benefit if they can attract enough homeowners.

Why are many potential buyers unable to take advantage of low mortgage rates?

Orla McCaffrey 3:42
We have seen lots of people moving out of New York City, whether leaving their house, their apartment, or just even purchasing a second home is really popular right now.
J.R. Whalen 3:51
And then regulations in places like New York put a lot of challenges on sellers and how they could show a home or apartment.

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