Stock Market: What to Watch For in the 4th Quarter
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Here's your money briefing for Friday, October 1st. I'm J.R. Whelan for The Wall Street Journal. Checked your 401k lately? It's probably experiencing whiplash along with the rest of the stock market. The S&P 500 fell 4% in September alone. So how should investors be preparing for the fourth quarter?
As Mike Tyson once said, it's the punch you don't see that knocks you out. And it's usually the unexpected event that comes from something that causes the market to melt down.
TD Ameritrade Chief Market Strategist J.J. Keenahan has his finger on the pulse of the stock market. We'll ask him what to watch out for through the end of the year. That's after the break.
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The Delta variant, inflation, China, those are just a few of the cold, hard realities that spook the stock market after a hot summer of steady increases and fresh records.
What caused September's broad selloff and why should investors care?
So where could the market go from here? And what does it mean for your investments? Let's bring in TD Ameritrade Chief Market Strategist J.J. Keenahan for some answers. J.J., thank you so much for being with us.
Thanks, J.R. Pleasure to be here today.
So JJ, markets trended upward over the summer, but we finished out September with fits of instability. What kind of a picture do you see coming in the fourth quarter?
I think the biggest thing we'll see in the fourth quarter is going to be continued volatility. I say that for a couple of reasons. The primary reason being, yes, the Fed has talked about tapering, but until we have some definitive dates, I think you're going to see every number met with, oh, is this the number that makes them taper? Oh, is this the number that makes them continue to have an easy money policy? So until we have something more definite, as we always see, the Fed rules all, if you will. We do have some things underneath there that are concerning, particularly over the last couple of weeks, as we have so many companies coming out with earnings and talking about supply chain issues. And that's something that I think we're going to hear a lot more of as we head into the fourth quarter and we start to see company put their earnings projections out.
And analysts, I think, will start to lower earnings projections based on that, particularly as we head into the holiday season.
You know, JJ, a lot of people tuned into the economy say that we're in a unique recovery with stubborn inflation, along with a lot of people still out of work. So how do you see that translating to market movement coming up?
I think that we're going to continue to see a positive picture on employment. Yes, it's been a little bit rocky over the last couple of months, but I think that part of that has to do with where we're sitting in terms of different cities having different rules around the Delta variant. As we head into the winter, the hope is we're starting to see across the United States a little bit of a breakage on it. Hopefully, this trend will continue. The other thing to keep in mind is that some of the assistant checks have stopped.
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