What Will Traveling Look Like--and Cost--in 2021?
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Here's your Money Briefing for Wednesday, January 6th. I'm J.R. Whalen for The Wall Street Journal. If you're like most Americans, you kept your travel to a bare minimum during the pandemic. But with vaccines being rolled out and new safety measures being put in place, airlines and hotels are hoping you'll be comfortable enough to fly again in 2021.
Travelers are at the point, there's so much pent-up demand and frustration that if you can afford it, you're going to pay it to get on the airplane and go once you feel that it is safe to go.
So what should you expect if you plan to fly off on a vacation this year? Our Middle Sea columnist Scott McCartney has some predictions for what travel will look like and cost in 2021. That's after the break.
The cost of travel plummeted during the pandemic. Airlines and hotels were eager to attract any customers they could. But will that continue to be the case in 2021?
How will airfares change month-to-month in 2021?
Our Middle Sea columnist Scott McCartney has his finger on the pulse of the travel industry. He's put together some predictions for the coming year, and he joins us now. Scott, thanks for being with us.
Good to be with you, JR.
So as the vaccine rollout continues and cities continue to open up, what does this mean for people who canceled their plans last year and are considering getting on a plane in 2021?
What it means is that ticket prices, and I think you're going to see this in some hotels too, they're going to be very volatile this year. There may be some destinations at some times when a lot of people want to go and airlines, that demand will ramp up faster than airline ability to add more flights. And so you have more demand for the few seats that are available now. And what you'll see are much higher prices. And that's certainly welcome news to airlines. And I think travelers are at the point, there's so much pent-up demand and frustration that if you can afford it, you're going to pay it to get on the airplane and go once you feel that it is safe to go. I looked at prices for the next 11 months, and you could see kind of a trend of, look, February, March, April price.
When will travelers start paying higher prices for summer flights?
really cheap prices. Nobody's going to be traveling, right? And that's fine. You could go coast to coast for $200 round trip. And that's a heck of a deal. But with the pandemic surging, you know, don't be enticed by a low price. That said, prices go up in summer. And I think airlines are anticipating and travelers are anticipating that With more vaccination, they'll feel more comfortable traveling. And, you know, I think we've learned an important lesson over Thanksgiving and Christmas that even though the numbers were way down compared to the previous year, but they were way up compared to normal travel. And so I think what that says is, When people feel a real need to go, they're going to go. They're going to take the risk.
A lot of them are. Not all of them, but more than would normally go. And so we'll see that next summer.
How might reduced business travel affect fall airline pricing?
You do see prices come down some in the fall. The fall may be a tough travel period for airlines because it's typically a strong business travel period. And there's just going to be, I think, even throughout 2021, depressed levels of business travel.
Now let's shift to how we got here in the first place, the issue of safety. The airlines responded to the coronavirus by putting safety protocols in place in planes and airports. So what do you think travelers can expect this year?
I think the big shift will be in requirements for health record. We're already seeing some countries and even some states require negative test results. And it'll be up to airlines, in a sense, to enforce state requirements by not allowing people on the airplane if they don't have a negative test result. Much like when you travel internationally, the airline can't carry you if you don't have the right visa or the right passport. And so there will be more of that. These are really safety health restrictions imposed by countries or states, but they're going to rely on airlines to enforce them. And airlines, in many cases, are perfectly happy to do
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:05–1:02
2
How will airfares change month-to-month in 2021?
1:02–2:13
3
When will travelers start paying higher prices for summer flights?
2:13–3:12
4
How might reduced business travel affect fall airline pricing?
3:12–4:53
5
What new testing and vaccination documentation will airlines enforce?
4:53–7:07
6
How will airport procedures and passenger flow become slower in 2021?
7:07–8:29
7
Will federal rules make mask enforcement on planes more effective?
8:29–10:02
8
How are hotels adjusting to a leisure-focused travel recovery?
10:02–11:08
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from WSJ Your Money Briefing
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