When Corporate Earnings Retreat Will Markets Follow?
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Your Money Briefing.
Money and market stories from The Wall Street Journal. I'm J.R. Whelan in New York. The strength of the stock market has been fueled in large part by strong corporate earnings growth. But what happens when those earnings figures begin to trail off?
How did corporate earnings drive the recent stock-market rally?
We'll explain in a moment. First, these money headlines. The Wall Street Journal economics team says that while the U.S. economy is on a solid trajectory this year, and overall growth is on track for a strong second quarter, It remains unclear how much credit goes to the tax law. Both critics and supporters say it will take months or years to draw conclusions on the law's effects. It also isn't clear yet what households have done with their extra income since inflation-adjusted consumer spending actually fell in the first couple months of the year before jumping in March and April. A tightening labor market and increased take-home pay from the tax cut passed in December are likely translating into a renewed sense of confidence among lower-income Americans.
Sentiment among lower-income consumers still trails that of their higher-earning counterparts, but that gap has narrowed in recent months, and workers nationwide who didn't share in the economic gains earlier in the recovery are getting pulled in from the sidelines. The jobless rate for African American and Latino workers are near record lows. The unemployment rate for black men was as high as 19.3% in March of 2010, but was down to 6.3% in May. And the jobless rate for those without a high school diploma, who constitute much of the low-wage workforce, touched a 25-year low late last year and is held below 6% this year. This is your Money Briefing from The Wall Street Journal.
What are economists saying about U.S. economic growth and the tax law's role?
Welcome back, everybody. Our runaway market rally has been fueled by runaway corporate earnings. But now many market watchers say the strong pace of corporate growth has reached a peak. And Wall Street Journal reporter Akani Ohtani joins us to discuss how this might impact the markets. So, Akani, in the first quarter, U.S. corporations grew their earnings by 25 percent. That's the fastest pace in about eight years. And the market, it liked what it saw.
Yeah, really impressive numbers. And a lot of people would say that there wasn't a whole lot to complain about. I mean, not only was the number itself impressive, but we also saw broad gains across all 11 sectors of the S&P 500. So unlike previous quarters, where maybe a lot of that was being driven by rebound in energy companies, this quarter, we actually saw broad improvements across every single industry you could think of.
And analysts see that pace steadily declining. Can you give us an idea of what those projections are?
So right now we're looking at something like 19 percent in the second quarter, 21 percent in the third, and then 17 in the fourth. And then next year we're supposed to see even more of a slowdown. So I'm thinking something like high single digits, low double digits.
OK. And, you know, in a normal year, the market might be expected to also respond to lower earnings. But these are not normal times, as we know. And the new tax law, I guess, is the wild card here.
Right. I think that's what investors and analysts are debating right now because there is, on the one hand, consensus that the first quarter gains were heavily driven by one-time gains from the tax overhaul. So it's not surprising. It's not terrible that we're going to see a slowdown from first quarter earnings growth because those numbers are pretty hard to beat because of those one-time gains. But on the other hand, you know, you're left with people asking, well, how much longer are those gains going to be reflected in the numbers? Could we see more of a boost from tax overhaul in the coming quarters? And could that potentially prolong this sort of earnings rally? Or are we going to see more of a steep drop off?
You know, there are a few key headwinds that could temper the effect of the tax law, things like corporate growth outside the U.S. And then there's also this ongoing threat of a trade war.
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