有这么一个猜拳游戏,猜拳的双方姑且叫他们“小单”和“小双”,单数和双数的单双。猜拳时只能出两种手势,就是出一个大拇指,表示一,或者出四个手指,表示四。然后把双发的手势数字加起来,单数时小单赢,双数时,小双赢。而且赢得分数就是双方手势数字之和。比如一个人出了1,另一个出了4,那么加起来是5,那小单赢了5分。如果两个人都出了1,那么加起来是2,是双数,那么小双赢了2分。现在的问题就是这个游戏是公平的游戏吗?该游戏的纳什均衡点在小单以13/20的概率出1,7/20的概率出4,如此的话,小单平均每局可赢0.45分。计算过程如下:设小单出1的概率是p,小双出1的概率是q。则小单每局的得分期望值是:–2pq+5(1 –p)q+5p(1 –q)–8(1–p)(1–q)=13p+13q–20pq–8现在的目标是无论q是多少,确定一个最佳的p值,则可将q作为变量,p作为常量,将上式化为:q(13–20p)–(8–13p)则可注意到当13-20p=0时,上式将不依赖于q。则可解得p=13/20时,上式值为0.45。即为纳什均衡点时,小单的单局得分期望值。
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