牛哥講經丨廣東話哲學、書籍分享
二十世紀關稅戰引爆大蕭條？經濟史家：大蕭條呢隻鑊，關稅揹唔起！「與大眾理解相反，大蕭條不是《斯姆特──霍利關稅法》造成的，甚至也沒因為它而加重多少」丨有文有路（6）丨《貿易大歷史》
12 Apr 2025
最近見到有人因為特朗普祭出嘅全球關稅，擔心會令大蕭條再現。佢哋嘅論點係1930年到1933年嘅《斯姆特──霍利關稅法》（Smoot-Hawley Tariff）將關稅推高，以致美國貿易失去動力，結果造就出1929年開始嘅美國大蕭條。呢種講法，聽落係幾有文有路，但實際上對應唔到經濟學家嘅研究結果。今次有文有路，我會用財經及貿易史作家威廉．伯恩斯坦所寫嘅《貿易大歷史》，同你回顧一下二十世紀嘅關稅大戰——大蕭條呢隻鑊，關稅實在係揹唔起。伯恩斯坦講到：「在所難免的結論是：與大眾理解相反，大蕭條不是《斯姆特──霍利關稅法》造成的，甚至也沒因為它而加重多少」——要明白《斯姆特──霍利關稅法》嘅影響，我哋先要了解關稅喺工業革命後點樣成為貿易嘅常態……
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