Aaron David Miller

It's ammonia and urea.

You have planting season right in the United States.

Fertilizer prices have gone up.

So, no, the Europeans would like to see this over.

But the Brit Starmer has just announced that he's against this blockade.

So, no, I don't think you'll get any help from the Europeans in trying to open the blockade as long as there is a danger that they could be drawn into a war against Iran.

You know, this is one of the great mysteries.

I talk to people who say, yeah, they bind the straits.

But then others say, no, they haven't.

I'm not sure the U.S.

would have sent two destroyers through the straits, which they did last week, without knowing where those mines actually were.

Which leads me to the conclusion that if there has been mining, it hasn't been serious, which would impede traffic.

The straits have never been closed.

What the Iranians have done, as you know, is set up a system of preferential access, including demanding certain tolls from countries.

So there have been ships, what, the normal flow is 150.

I think it's dwindled to a handful.

I don't know how much of the straits have been mined, particularly this sort of two or three mile width shipping lane, which would be easy to mine, I would expect.

We've destroyed a lot of their mine layers.

according to the Pentagon.

But there are fast boats.