Aaron David Miller

This is a war.

The president said it's an excursion.

It's a war between the U.S.

and Iran and Israel and Iran.

And parties at war can exercise that right.

To say the least.

Our adversaries are delighted and our allies are pulling their hair out.

Yeah, Macron has taken the lead.

The French president has taken the lead in Oregon, as many as 35 countries, to talk about what I guess we could describe, Dave, as a sort of post-conflict maritime response.

I think the Europeans would happily, maybe unhappily—

to contribute intelligence, demining capacity in a post-conflict environment when it was unmistakably clear to normal humans that there would be no more shooting.

I think the Europeans, in large part because, look, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the Europeans

dependence on Russian oil was a huge problem.

And then they switched, largely because of the Norwegians, the Qataris, and the Americans.

They weaned themselves off of that Russian oil through increasing dependence on natural gas.

But now you have 25% of the global supply of natural gas blocked.

Can't get through the Straits.

No pipelines for that.

And as a consequence, it's not just oil.

It's fertilizer, a key ingredient which requires natural gas.