Aaron David Miller

connected by pipeline to the Iranian mainland, that load tankers will identify those ships.

And if the Iranians choose to try to export oil through the Straits of Hormuz, largely to Asia, the US military will stop those ships.

So can this degrade Iran's capacity to fund this war over time?

Probably.

The Iranians have an export terminal at Jask, which is beyond the Straits on the Gulf of Oman, but that is not a reliable pipeline.

It can transport, I think, up to a million barrels a day, but I suspect it's not practical and functional.

So there will be this blockade.

I suspect that at some point, Iranians will challenge or probably could strike U.S.

military targets, again, bases in the Gulf, or perhaps even go after U.S.

ships.

More likely, they'll probably go back to striking the Gulf states, much more vulnerable, and probably from their point of view, much more productive.

Where the blockade leads in the end though is uncertain.

I mean the Chinese get I think 13% of their imports, total imports come from Iranian oil and you might expect the Chinese to weigh in with the Iranians.

The Pakistanis might as well.

But I don't think that this blockade is going to provide a quick or easy instrument

to force the Iranians not to capitulate.

I don't think that's possible now, but to soften up their negotiating positions.

So I don't think the blockade is going to work.

And if it doesn't, it's better than deploying ground troops to seize Kharag Island or any of the islands in the strait.

If it doesn't work,