Aaron David Miller
speaker
716 appearances
16 recordings
3 series
first heard Oct 2025
last heard 12 Jun
Aaron David Miller’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 16 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 8.
Appearances
The U.S.
military has the capacity.
They'll identify tankers, right, loading up at Karg Island, which was the main export terminal.
connected by pipeline to the Iranian mainland, that load tankers will identify those ships.
And if the Iranians choose to try to export oil through the Straits of Hormuz, largely to Asia, the US military will stop those ships.
So can this degrade Iran's capacity to fund this war over time?
Probably.
The Iranians have an export terminal at Jask, which is beyond the Straits on the Gulf of Oman, but that is not a reliable pipeline.
It can transport, I think, up to a million barrels a day, but I suspect it's not practical and functional.
So there will be this blockade.
I suspect that at some point, Iranians will challenge or probably could strike U.S.
military targets, again, bases in the Gulf, or perhaps even go after U.S.
ships.
More likely, they'll probably go back to striking the Gulf states, much more vulnerable, and probably from their point of view, much more productive.
Where the blockade leads in the end though is uncertain.
I mean the Chinese get I think 13% of their imports, total imports come from Iranian oil and you might expect the Chinese to weigh in with the Iranians.
The Pakistanis might as well.
But I don't think that this blockade is going to provide a quick or easy instrument
to force the Iranians not to capitulate.
I don't think that's possible now, but to soften up their negotiating positions.
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