Adam Elga

All the wakings will feel just the same, including there will be

If there are two awakenings after the first one, beauty will be made to forget about the first awakening.

So in all cases, beauty will have the sensation of waking up, thinking to themself, this feels like the first waking.

I don't have an apparent memory of another one.

Is it that the coin landed heads and it's Monday?

Or is it that the coin landed tails and it's Monday or tails and Tuesday?

The mnemonic is tails is for the two waking scenario.

Okay, good.

And I have been persuaded by an argument, or at least tentatively persuaded by an argument that says, we want to set things up so that if the coin toss happens after the Monday waking, we are consistent with a very tempting view that

once beauty finds out that it's Monday, if they are, for example, a few minutes after waking up, told, hey, it's Monday, and they're furthermore told, hey, it's Monday, and we're about to toss this fair coin, and the coin toss is going to determine whether there will be one more waking or not.

It seems hard to deny to me that

beauty should be 50-50 about how this fair coin will land.

And now let's work backwards from that, what I think of as a kind of very hard to deny claim about this variant case.

We can work backwards from that case and think, what

Prior, first of all, we can in two steps say things wouldn't have been different.

The analysis shouldn't have been different if the coin had been in fact tossed earlier.

So, for example, suppose they.

the coin tossed it was just the coin toss outcome was in a box sealed no one's seen it and then they just carry that box and they say we're now going to for the first time open this box yeah it seems uh tempting to think that the verdicts in that case should match the verdicts in the case where the coin toss is really later that's why people don't freak out

when, about exactly when lottery drawings happen and so on.

We sort of think that to the extent that no one's cheating or no one's peaking, it's all going to be the same.