Adam Elga

So let's say there are many Potemkin receiving stations and only one Enterprise receiving station.

Now, you can think about your situation.

Again, we're using constraints on your enterprise.

expectations at an earlier time to guide your intuitions about what you should think at this later time.

So here you are about to step into the transporter and you think, what do I expect?

So you certainly expect to wake up in one of the identical seeming receiving rooms.

But let us say that

on the enterprise, there's a wonderful pleasant experience waiting for you after a few minutes, but on the Potemkin, a less pleasant experience.

So there's just one enterprise though, and there are 100 Potemkins.

And then as you step into the transporter, are you scared?

Is your attitude more like your attitude when

there's a 50-50 bad thing going to happen to you?

Or is it more like your attitude when a 99 out of 100 bad thing is going to happen to you?

And it's sort of like this question about like, what do you expect when you open your eyes?

Of course, we can't interpret that as what objective thing do we expect to happen in the world?

Because when we're talking about those questions, there's only complete certainty.

What you expect with 100% certitude to happen is there will be a body created on the Enterprise.

There'll be 99, 100 on the Potemkin.

And the good thing will happen to the Enterprise person.

The bad thing will happen to the others.