Adam Livingston

speaker

573 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 24 Jun

Adam Livingston’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

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What Bitcoin Did · Is Michael Saylor Trapped? STRC Explained | Adam Livingston · 24 Jun 2026 podcast

Given Bitcoin's volatility, a lot of people don't realize this, but Bitcoin's volatility has almost been cut in half since 2022, which is a wild stat.

Like the volatility has been crushed for Bitcoin.

And a lot of people don't realize that the moves necessary on a daily basis to get you below like a 40K Bitcoin number or like a FTX black swan after black swan type situation, it is so much more statistically unlikely given the amount of capital that has to move now.

And like, so I think that, you know, who knows if we're in the exact bottom, but it has to be close.

I don't know if you agree with me, but it seems like we're right there.

Sentiment, I think, is the worst it's ever been.

Yeah.

As of now, I think when you look at the actual price data and the price performance of Bitcoin, it's tough to argue that diminishing returns aren't a thing.

And a lot of people do this super cringe thing where they'll draw a line from the 2021 top and they'll do a horizontal line to now and they'll say, look, it's been flat, dead capital.

But what I like to look at is the

year-over-year, four-year moving average compound annual growth rate, where you smooth out the volatility.

And you are seeing that 10 years ago, when it was going up 54% per year, year-over-year, now it's 30%, then 29%, then 28%.

I might be making some numbers up there, but that's essentially what it is.

You are seeing a decrease in the CAGR of the four-year moving average.

The people that say diminishing returns aren't a thing, well, we just saw a huge muted upside with the October 2025 bull run, where we were trading at the power law trend, which is way less than previous bull markets.

So it's tough.

I think that we're going to see muted downside volatility as well.

I think that's the most realistic scenario.

I think the people calling for 30k Bitcoin like it's some certainty are smoking crack, to be frank.

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