Adam Posen
speaker
48 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 22 Jul
Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
It's a big deal.
It's a big deal.
And it's not just slowing.
It's slowing after being slow for quite some time.
They've got a bunch of domestic consumption that's very weak and is getting weaker.
And they've got a small business sector and private sector outside of tech that's not investing.
You take away the housing boom that they had a few years ago, it's not much of an engine for the world's second biggest economy.
Consumption makes a smaller part of the Chinese economy than in the U.S., but it still makes up 40, 50 percent.
And some people would say it's totally down to the real estate bubble that all these people had invested in.
houses or condos or unbuilt condo houses that are now worthless.
But generally, historically, household balance sheets are not the only thing that drives that.
So what I've argued for a few years now, and I think this bears out, is that people in China are
are fundamentally scared that their property can go away, that their jobs can go away.
And particularly if you look at the youth unemployment, I mean, China's measured youth unemployment is 18%, but that's after they stopped collecting the data for a few months to try to make it look less bad.
Many people think the youth unemployment is higher than that.
The future looks pretty grim, and so people are saving a lot more.
Got it.
And you mentioned small businesses, too.
Talk to me about them.
Well, part of the miracle in the 80s, 90s into the 2000s in China was this enormous growth of small business.
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