Adam Posen
speaker
151 appearances
3 recordings
3 series
first heard Aug 2025
last heard 14 May
Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 1.
Appearances
I think they have a reversal built in at this point, because essentially they're gambling on the fact that our star hasn't risen.
They're gambling on the fact that
the recessionary effects of the tariffs and the anti-migration will more than offset the inflationary effects.
They're gambling on the fact that long-term inflation expectations will remain fully anchored, which, amidst everything else, after the last few years and after the attacks on the Fed, seems like a bad gamble.
And ultimately, they're gambling on the fact that the pass-through of these things is going to be very limited, which gets us back to Tom's 70s analogy.
It does, but that's different from what you and I were just talking about, Lisa.
This is what happens when you run a terrible policy mix when you get stagflation, is you have no good choice, and then you're stuck worrying about inflation despite the fact people are suffering.
This is the problem.
It's not because there aren't going to be problems and aren't already problems in the labor market.
It's because the inflation threat is worse at this point.
And if the Trump administration hadn't done all the things it had done, we wouldn't be facing this terrible tradeoff.
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