Adam Tooze

I mean, you might think that, and that would in a sense be a continuity with the Biden team as well, because they were talking in rather similar terms. I mean, Jake Sullivan had that famous speech where he talked about, you know, new Washington consensus, post-neoliberalism was all the rage.

I mean, you might think that, and that would in a sense be a continuity with the Biden team as well, because they were talking in rather similar terms. I mean, Jake Sullivan had that famous speech where he talked about, you know, new Washington consensus, post-neoliberalism was all the rage.

Chips and IRA and that. And that's the question is like, where's the beef? And if they go on talking like this and it's quite difficult to actually put your finger on what they're doing and whether it could possibly be for real, you start wondering whether it isn't more like a facelift. It's more that Mar-a-Lago aesthetic where we all pretend to be 25. And no judgment, like that's fine.

Chips and IRA and that. And that's the question is like, where's the beef? And if they go on talking like this and it's quite difficult to actually put your finger on what they're doing and whether it could possibly be for real, you start wondering whether it isn't more like a facelift. It's more that Mar-a-Lago aesthetic where we all pretend to be 25. And no judgment, like that's fine.

You go do your thing, but we aren't actually 25. And there's a way in which something like that is clearly true about the economy. I mean, the economy, there's never literally ever in history been a case of a society as successful as the US and as rich as the US that has somehow reversed the structure of the relationship between the key bits, right? The service sector, the industrial sector.

You go do your thing, but we aren't actually 25. And there's a way in which something like that is clearly true about the economy. I mean, the economy, there's never literally ever in history been a case of a society as successful as the US and as rich as the US that has somehow reversed the structure of the relationship between the key bits, right? The service sector, the industrial sector.

And once upon a time, it would have been farming and agriculture, which I know you're into in New Jersey.

And once upon a time, it would have been farming and agriculture, which I know you're into in New Jersey.

You can't reverse, certainly nothing in history to date has suggested you can do that. And the US industrial and manufacturing sector right now isn't the platform from which you would expect a kind of reconquest or a transformation of all of American society.

You can't reverse, certainly nothing in history to date has suggested you can do that. And the US industrial and manufacturing sector right now isn't the platform from which you would expect a kind of reconquest or a transformation of all of American society.

Technology is key here, and that's been the driver all along. The basic story, and this is why this is all so kind of ironic and weird, is that we've gotten really, really good at manufacturing an industry in the same way as we got really, really good at farming. Once upon a time, the vast majority of Americans were farmers, and that wasn't a lifestyle choice.

Technology is key here, and that's been the driver all along. The basic story, and this is why this is all so kind of ironic and weird, is that we've gotten really, really good at manufacturing an industry in the same way as we got really, really good at farming. Once upon a time, the vast majority of Americans were farmers, and that wasn't a lifestyle choice.

That was because we just couldn't feed ourselves because we were so bad at farming. We got very good at farming.

That was because we just couldn't feed ourselves because we were so bad at farming. We got very good at farming.

Yeah. I mean, that's the norm, right? Because people are desperate and all over the world and always been desperate. And so it's really anomalous to have rich farmers. That's a really peculiar situation to be in. Right.

Yeah. I mean, that's the norm, right? Because people are desperate and all over the world and always been desperate. And so it's really anomalous to have rich farmers. That's a really peculiar situation to be in. Right.

Yeah, for sure. You get slave labor, you get various types of forced labor. Right. But the story here of technological change is one that just cuts through this. The crisis story, the New Deal that you might be invoking, for instance, in the 30s, it doesn't change anything about the balance between the bits, right?

Yeah, for sure. You get slave labor, you get various types of forced labor. Right. But the story here of technological change is one that just cuts through this. The crisis story, the New Deal that you might be invoking, for instance, in the 30s, it doesn't change anything about the balance between the bits, right?

So the share of industry in the US economy as a whole was 40% before the New Deal and after the New Deal and continued at that level until the late 60s when really rapid technological change and the global redivision of labor kicked in where the Japanese learned to make cars, which Americans would buy. And there was that shift.

So the share of industry in the US economy as a whole was 40% before the New Deal and after the New Deal and continued at that level until the late 60s when really rapid technological change and the global redivision of labor kicked in where the Japanese learned to make cars, which Americans would buy. And there was that shift.