Ajeya Cotra

And I think I would be like very scared that it's

we'll be going too early or this is a bad idea or we're going to have egg on our face afterwards because there were some early signs of intelligence explosion, but it's not really going to work out.

And then we've spent $10 billion and we have nothing left to show for it.

You'd feel really bad if you made that mistake.

Does that sound like a plausible way for things to go?

For this sort of incredible scaling of funding and effort to take place, you're going to be incredibly bottlenecked on people, or there won't be that many more people involved.

So it would have to be the AIs not just doing the object-level work, but also deciding what problems to work on.

Managing the project and overseeing other AIs, basically just taking up the entire org hierarchy.

So that's the picture that you're envisaging?

I think we've maybe actually been burying the lead a little bit here on what the biggest challenge is for an external group like OpenPhil to implement this plan, which is, will you even be given access to the very best models that are being trained?

And I guess at this crunch time when there's a crunch on demand for compute, will you actually have enough computer chips?

So will anyone be willing to sell to you if you do this kind of work?

Can you go into that?

So there could be a huge run-up in the price of GPUs or compute at this time, but you can partly hedge against that possibility by having most of your investments be in NVIDIA or other companies that sell GPUs so that if their price goes up, you benefit on the investment side and that helps to offset the increasing price.

Yeah.

And then on the software side, there's a question of whether you have access to the very best models that are being trained.

I guess on the one hand, there's this story you can imagine where the companies are very close together.

The models are roughly the same.

Margins are very low.

They're very keen to put out models as soon as possible in order to remain competitive.