Akane Otani

speaker

1,333 appearances 33 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2017 last heard Mar 2023

Akane Otani’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Why Investors Feel Glum Even as Markets Flirt With Records · 25 Jun 2019 podcast

Besides the things that you mentioned, the chief one probably being the trade tensions between the U.S. voice-verified

and China, which will really come to the forefront in the next couple of days as the two countries prepare to meet at the G20 meeting. voice-verified

And how those talks go is really some of the biggest sort of sources of stress, I think, for a lot of investors at the moment, because all the things that we've been talking about the last couple of months, from slowing global growth to the path the Fed is going to take, are really going to be affected by the outcome of the trade talks. voice-verified

I think that's definitely true. voice-verified

I mean, a lot of analysts have been having trouble forecasting what the stock market and the bond market is going to do this year because of the uncertainty around trade. voice-verified

If we actually remove that uncertainty and say there's some kind of trade deal that emerges, it's very possible that the slowing of global growth that we were seeing throughout the year is actually going to slow down a little bit or improve a little bit. voice-verified

And we might see a brighter picture for corporate profits ahead. voice-verified

That's right. voice-verified

And I think the main things that they're keeping an eye on in that regard is the U.S. voice-verified

domestic growth picture. voice-verified

I mean, it's certainly no question that the global economy has been weakening and that particularly in the Eurozone and China, we've been seeing some deterioration of key indicators for some time now. voice-verified

But voice-verified

In the U.S., we're still expecting to see solid gains for GDP and some slowing, but still modest gains for corporate profits as well. voice-verified

So when you keep that in mind, it seems like it's still a little bit too early to be completely throwing in the towel. voice-verified

Yeah, so this is something that we actually observed at the start of 2018 when we were seeing the S&P 500, the Stocks Europe 600, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, just stocks all around the world, as well as other things like commodities, currencies, even things like Bitcoin, really on a tear higher. voice-verified

And voice-verified

investors were calling it a melt-up rally situation where basically everything is rising so quickly that people want to jump in and put their money in, not because of fundamentals like the economic picture looks good or corporate profits look good, but because they're simply worried about missing out on further gains. voice-verified

Right. voice-verified

And that kind of rally is the type of situation where people start to get nervous because even though things on paper may seem like they're going really well with, you know, everything up double digit percentages for the year. voice-verified

That's the type of situation that people say is sort of characterized by irrational joy and exuberation and sort of the situation that's very vulnerable to collapse, which we did see in February of 2018. voice-verified

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