Akane Otani

speaker

1,333 appearances 33 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2017 last heard Mar 2023

Akane Otani’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · U.S.-China Trade Spat: Wall Street Senses a Deal · 24 May 2019 podcast

But that being said, the domestic data have largely pointed to pretty solid economic situation in the US. matched

And so the fund managers I spoke to said that they're not ready to pull out just yet. matched

That's right. matched

And in fact, they were probably affected less than what investors were fearing. matched

So going into the start of the year, people were quite pessimistic, in fact. matched

And because we were seeing signs of growth rolling over in the European Union, in China, in emerging markets, there was this big fear that big multinationals in the U.S. matched

were really going to see their profits affected. matched

And while we are on track to see S&P earnings decline for the first quarter since 2016, the actual decline is looking quite modest at this point, only about 0.5% versus estimates of 4% earlier in the quarter. matched

So the fact that things have turned out better than feared is giving investors some reassurance at this point. matched

And that's a big sign of support for the markets, at least so far in the year. matched

The fact that the Fed has signaled it's not really looking to raise rates or cut rates anytime soon is really helping support investors thesis that basically we're sort of at a steady as she goes kind of cycle right now. matched

The economy is growing, but not too fast. matched

And that's basically going to allow the Fed to stay put for now. matched

which for investors is kind of the best case scenario, because in fact, if we did see the Fed signal that it has to cut rates immediately, it would sort of signal we might be closer to a recession than we thought. matched

So the fact that we're actually just seeing the Fed on pause for the moment is actually quite reassuring to many investors. matched

There have been some signs of caution, but no signs of panic yet in the bond market. matched

And I think that's pretty important to note. matched

I mean, one thing that people have been watching this year is the yield curve and specifically the spread between the yields on three-month and 10-year treasuries. matched

And historically, when we've seen this inversion, in other words, when the three-month has actually yielded more than the 10-year, matched

It has signaled that a recession is sort of on the way. matched

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