Akane Otani

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1,333 appearances 33 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2017 last heard Mar 2023

Akane Otani’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Stocks, Bond Yields Slide on Weak Economic Data · 22 Mar 2019 podcast

And I think the fact that we're seeing bond yields puncture matched

In Germany's case, it went negative for the first time since October 2016. matched

In the case of the 10-year U.S. matched

Treasury yield, we're seeing the lowest settle since January 2018. matched

I mean, those numbers really tell you the extent to which investors have become worried. matched

Right. matched

So that's what we call the yield curve, which is the spread between shorter term and the longer term treasuries. matched

And in history, we've seen recession follow every single time that this curve has inverted. matched

Or in other words, when the three month treasury has yielded more than the 10 year treasury. matched

And that kind of makes sense because when you think about it, investors typically expect more of an investment on something that they're holding onto for 10 years as opposed to for three months. matched

So the fact that we saw the inversion happen today for the first time since 2007, I think, really caught people's eyes because it's telling us that what is happening in the Eurozone and some of the loss of momentum that we've seen in the U.S. matched

is factoring into investors' growth prospects. matched

Yeah. matched

And it's funny how the market's tenor seems to change so dramatically from day to day. matched

Because for a lot of this year, it did seem like investors were reassured by that kind of signaling from the Fed. matched

They were taking comfort in the fact that the Fed was signaling a pause in rate increases. matched

A lot of people were attributing the really tremendous stock rally that we were seeing the last couple of months to that. matched

Even with today's declines, the S&P 500 is still up double-digit percentages for the year, still on track for its biggest quarterly gain in nearly a decade. matched

But you do have to consider that it seems like investors are increasingly questioning whether the Fed's messaging is something that they should take comfort in or that they should raise an eyebrow at. matched

Yeah, it's going to be an interesting one to watch because, on the one hand, investors have been saying for several months at this point, expect some cooling in the economy, especially because we're seeing the benefits from the tax cut fade increasingly. matched

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