Alex Frangos

It's going to take a little while for the market to process all of the information. But the initial reaction is this is bad for the economy. So we're seeing kind of a recession trade. Stock futures are down. Oil prices are down. Bond yields are down. And one thing that's surprising is the dollar is also down, which is usually a sign that people are kind of negative on the U.S. economy.

It's going to take a little while for the market to process all of the information. But the initial reaction is this is bad for the economy. So we're seeing kind of a recession trade. Stock futures are down. Oil prices are down. Bond yields are down. And one thing that's surprising is the dollar is also down, which is usually a sign that people are kind of negative on the U.S. economy.

So far, the reaction is strong. Definitely, this is a big market day. It's not catastrophic. which market commentators are interpreting as, well, let's see what this looks like next week, because there's going to be a flurry of negotiation and promises. And maybe this won't be quite as robust as it looks today, but we'll just have to see.

So far, the reaction is strong. Definitely, this is a big market day. It's not catastrophic. which market commentators are interpreting as, well, let's see what this looks like next week, because there's going to be a flurry of negotiation and promises. And maybe this won't be quite as robust as it looks today, but we'll just have to see.

You're welcome.

You're welcome.

One of the things that people are really looking out for with Powell this week is how much is he going to talk about the economy slowing down? We're seeing it in a whole bunch of different indicators in terms of consumer sentiment and retail sales. People in all income spectrums are sort of starting to feel a little bit of a pinch.

One of the things that people are really looking out for with Powell this week is how much is he going to talk about the economy slowing down? We're seeing it in a whole bunch of different indicators in terms of consumer sentiment and retail sales. People in all income spectrums are sort of starting to feel a little bit of a pinch.

So if he highlights that, it may indicate that his inclination is that the economy is going to need more support, need rate cuts sooner than people are expecting. On the other hand, if he highlights the risks of tariffs in terms of reigniting inflation, maybe they're not going to cut so quickly. So those are the things people are looking out for.

So if he highlights that, it may indicate that his inclination is that the economy is going to need more support, need rate cuts sooner than people are expecting. On the other hand, if he highlights the risks of tariffs in terms of reigniting inflation, maybe they're not going to cut so quickly. So those are the things people are looking out for.

with so much riding on Nvidia and their massive business selling AI chips. People are paying very close attention to the latest rounds of chips, what chips they're gonna have later this year, and what chips they're gonna have next year to see how much better they're gonna be, how much more they're gonna be able to charge for them.

with so much riding on Nvidia and their massive business selling AI chips. People are paying very close attention to the latest rounds of chips, what chips they're gonna have later this year, and what chips they're gonna have next year to see how much better they're gonna be, how much more they're gonna be able to charge for them.

So much is riding on that given how valuable that company is, given huge spending by tech companies for these chips, but also worries about the AI models like DeepSeq that maybe don't need as many chips. And we had this huge wobble in January when DeepSeq came out and people worried, well, do we need NVIDIA anymore? Turns out we still do for the time being.

So much is riding on that given how valuable that company is, given huge spending by tech companies for these chips, but also worries about the AI models like DeepSeq that maybe don't need as many chips. And we had this huge wobble in January when DeepSeq came out and people worried, well, do we need NVIDIA anymore? Turns out we still do for the time being.

The markets are really struggling to interpret the moves. And I think there's a difference of opinion. Some investors see this all as posturing, get closer to the deadline, raise the stakes. Aber sie denken, es wird ein Deal gemacht werden. Aber gestern hat er die China-Tarife erhöht. Und ich denke, das hat die Menschen ziemlich viel Spuk gemacht.

The markets are really struggling to interpret the moves. And I think there's a difference of opinion. Some investors see this all as posturing, get closer to the deadline, raise the stakes. Aber sie denken, es wird ein Deal gemacht werden. Aber gestern hat er die China-Tarife erhöht. Und ich denke, das hat die Menschen ziemlich viel Spuk gemacht.

China ist heute Morgen rausgekommen und hat gesagt, dass sie sich verteidigen werden. Die Märkte im Ausland haben sich sehr gut gefühlt. Aber es gab diesen Zyklus, wo es einen Schreck gibt. Die Märkte wabbeln ein bisschen, aber dann kommen sie sich an. Es gibt viele Leute, mit denen wir sprechen, die sagen, sie werden nur warten, bis es einen echten Tarif gibt.

China ist heute Morgen rausgekommen und hat gesagt, dass sie sich verteidigen werden. Die Märkte im Ausland haben sich sehr gut gefühlt. Aber es gab diesen Zyklus, wo es einen Schreck gibt. Die Märkte wabbeln ein bisschen, aber dann kommen sie sich an. Es gibt viele Leute, mit denen wir sprechen, die sagen, sie werden nur warten, bis es einen echten Tarif gibt.

Wir haben Threats von vielen Dingen, Deadlines looming, Studien von dem und dem. Und ein wahrer Sinn, dass das Apparatus innerhalb der Regierung komplett überwältigt ist mit all diesen Vorschlägen und wie sie sie machen werden und wie schnell sie sie wirklich implementieren können. Also ist es sehr viel ein Mixed Bag.

Wir haben Threats von vielen Dingen, Deadlines looming, Studien von dem und dem. Und ein wahrer Sinn, dass das Apparatus innerhalb der Regierung komplett überwältigt ist mit all diesen Vorschlägen und wie sie sie machen werden und wie schnell sie sie wirklich implementieren können. Also ist es sehr viel ein Mixed Bag.