Alexander (Alex) Altmann
speaker
337 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 10 Jul
Alexander (Alex) Altmann’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
What keeps me awake at night is that you have a structural impairment to equities that effectively no economist on the planet has a cell in their econometric model that says 20% impairment to the S&P.
It basically destroys, let's just call it, around about $16 trillion of wealth.
So let's just say that's half of US GDP.
Right.
And that is an instant impairment to US consumption.
It's your recession straight out the gate.
I don't want to get all sort of bearish or anything, but I think it's just important to highlight within the broader context that that retail investors have a huge amount of exposure and therefore in turn, the US government has a huge amount of incentive to.
to try and not do anything too disorderly, that could completely derail.
I mean, my big stat is that people used to say the economy is not the stock market, or the stock market is not the economy.
Yeah, I just think the stock market is the economy now.
Not in the traditional sense of like, oh, the stock market is going up, therefore the economy is doing great.
But yeah, a 20% impairment to the stock market is kind of, I think, it will trigger a meaningful downturn in US consumption.
Right.
And look, again, just to talk about facts, the bulk of levered ETF AUM has grown within that cohort as well.
The largest AUMs are all within either NASDAQ related products or semis conductors or single names, most of which are, I mean, the largest single name levered ETF in the US is Micron.
So that kind of tells you the largest single name levered ETF in the world is Hynix.
So these dynamics do play an important role.
And especially when you start thinking about the tail wagging the dog and price dictates narrative, right?
So people see prices going up, that gives them a confirmation bias about, oh, that means maybe we can spend more money on CapEx or that means that the AI story is alive and well.
And that's not necessarily not true, but how much of that is getting distorted by these sort of these non-discretionary flows that are pushing prices up or indeed
Showing 121–140 of 337 · page 7 of 17
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