Alexander Osipovich
speaker
97 appearances
7 recordings
2 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard 28 Aug
Alexander Osipovich’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 5 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 2.
Appearances
It's not immediately obvious.
A new Polymarket account created in late December put down tens of thousands of dollars, mostly on a market on whether Maduro would be out as the leader of Venezuela by the end of January.
This trader ended up making more than $400,000.
And what's super interesting is that many of this trader's bets were placed just hours before the attack, around the time, in fact, just before Trump gave the final order sending the military in.
The interesting thing here is that prediction markets kind of have two purposes.
One is that they are kind of barometer of the likelihood of future events.
Ideally, you want to have well-informed people trading on them, putting skin in the game.
That is ideally, according to the vision of prediction markets, the way that you get truth.
But the other side of that coin is that you could have people who have genuine inside knowledge who jump into these markets, trade on that, make them more accurate in doing so, but also take advantage of other people who are not as well informed.
And that is why we have laws against insider trading in the stock market.
In 16th century Rome, there was quite a thriving culture of placing wagers on the results of papal conclaves. And this led to a very thriving rumor mill called where information would leak out of the conclave and things got kind of out of hand. Bookies and brokers were accused of manipulating the markets.
There were also allegations of insider trading by people close to the cardinals who knew what was going on. Eventually, the papacy cracked down on this, and in 1591, Pope Gregory XIV issued a papal bull that banned wagering on papal elections on penalty of excommunication.
Apple News Today · Bitcoin has surged. Why it matters, even if you don’t have any. · 5 Dec 2024
podcast
Bitcoin definitely has a history of crashing in spectacular fashion after hitting records.
If cryptocurrencies become part of the financial system and banks hold them and asset managers hold them and it becomes part of kind of regular financial interactions, then
that if there is an abrupt sudden crash, that could unleash a giant financial crisis that would have ripple effects into the broader economy, much the same way that the crash of housing in 2008 led to a broad economic slowdown really around the world.
Potentially, they might even do some things that would bolster the price of Bitcoin. There is talk of having a strategic Bitcoin reserve where the U.S. government would hold on to a stash of Bitcoin, much the same way we have a strategic petroleum reserve.
And, you know, to a large degree, that's still the case. You have this weird situation where crypto is now close to the apex of political power and deriving benefits from that, which begins to sound a lot like other industries that we have in America.
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