Alice Han

But when we look at the figures, they haven't really moved that much in terms of the share of global FX reserves, in terms of the share of global payments.

Now, they've marginally increased in the share of global payments.

But if you look at the share of FX reserves,

The U.S.

is still at about 56%.

China's is about 2% share of global FX reserves.

And look, if they really cared about strengthening the CNY, this could help actually make CNY more attractive for payments in trade invoicing and for an FX reserve in the share of other countries' global FX reserves.

So we'll have to watch this space.

I'm a bit more on the skeptical side.

One thing that I will add, as we're still in the midst of this phase two of a trade deal between the U.S.

and China, when I was in China in November, there was some discussion about a quiet plaza accord, you know, a la 80s between Japan and the U.S., where Japan quietly

appreciated its currency, facing pressure from the Americans to do so.

Similarly, we saw something happen between China and the US in 2016.

There was discussion about a Shanghai Accord.

Look, I think this could be a way in which China helps in the trade negotiations.

Because ultimately, Trump wants a weaker dollar, and he believes that currencies really drive trade imbalances, rightly or wrongly.

So again, we should watch this space because I think it's politically salient in the ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

Certainly this administration in the U.S.

cares a lot about currencies.

So we'll have to see if there is pressure put on the CNY.