Alicia García‑Herrero

speaker

388 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 6 Aug

Alicia García‑Herrero’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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Pekingology · Inside China's Dual Economy · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

What would happen to China without AI adoption?

And that's really your question.

So we actually run these two scenarios.

So we estimated China's growth rate by 2035.

2035 is a very important year, not only kind of the conclusion of the China dream, but it's because that's the year where China will have basically achieved full urbanization, like, say, the level of Japan or South Korea or the U.S., where no population will move from the rural areas to the cities because it will have been completed.

at the current rate of urbanization.

And why is that important?

Because now the collapse or the fall in the labor force is all in the rural areas, which are very unproductive.

So you don't notice, it doesn't really lower economic growth because it's like, how can you lower economic growth if they're not being productive?

So the key is when the cities start losing labor force.

And that happens in our calculations after 2035.

So from 2035, because of this massive impact in the cities of the collapse of the labor force, China would actually grow 1% a year only.

I know, it's pretty harsh to hear.

Will AI mitigate that huge structural deceleration because of aging and depopulation?

The answer is yes.

Why?

Because the increase in labor productivity out of AI will be bigger than the labor displacement.

So the bad thing about AI, you displace labor.

It can be accommodated by labor productivity.

However, so in other words, the estimates for us is like around 2% growth rather than one.

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