Amrith Ramkumar
speaker
860 appearances
16 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2018
last heard Sep 2021
Amrith Ramkumar’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
city surprise index has turned positive for the first time in two months, and commodity prices have come up.
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So all of these, again, were flashing red in December, and now they've moderated, and so that's kind of calmed some people down for sure.
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I think that's right.
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It's very interesting, too, because markets overseas have also been doing better.
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So that kind of goes to the idea that, in some sense, it has been a bit of a risk-off, risk-on rebound as well.
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But I think that's absolutely right, the fact that the U.S.
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has been able to have these solid jobs reports and people have faith in the labor market and the U.S.
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consumer has definitely underpinned a lot of this.
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And again, you have to remember that people are looking at the trade talks as a
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as all of this stuff is happening and trying to wait and see what happens there because, like you say, everything is interconnected.
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So some people are still very worried and saying that it's only a matter of time before this stuff starts having a bigger impact on the U.S.
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economy.
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Yeah.
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And it's giving some people whiplash, I think, just because December was so bad.
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It was the worst December in 87 years and now the best January in a long time.
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So we'll have to see what lies ahead.
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And yeah, I think there's a lot of uncertainty because people are saying the Fed has reversed course so quickly that, again, if economic data picks up, if inflation starts picking up, they might have to get more aggressive because it's not just the interest rate increases again, it's the
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flexibility with the balance sheet runoff so both of those elements together they've really been cautious about and again in such a short period of time like about six weeks so there's definitely a lot up in the air heading into the rest of 2019.
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It's definitely the dance investors kind of have to do, looking at the data to make sure that it's strong enough to support demand and, again, keep corporate earnings supported, but also not too strong to give the Fed more leeway to change its stance again and start raising rates again.
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Kind of how that balance plays out moving forward will definitely dictate a lot of things.
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