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Andrej Karpathy

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
3419 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

I guess there's worse outcomes.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But I guess in software, I almost feel like it's almost unbounded how terrible some things could be.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So I do think that they share that property.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And then I think basically what takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it's a march of nines, and every single nine is a constant amount of work.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So every single nine is the same amount of work.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So when you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that's just the first nine.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And then you need a second nine, a third nine, fourth nine, fifth nine.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And while I was at Tesla for, was it five years or so, I think we went through maybe three nines, two nines, I don't know what it is.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But like multiple nines of iteration, there's still more nines to go.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And so that's why these things take so long.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And so it's definitely formative for me, like seeing something that was a demo.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

I'm very unimpressed by demos.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So whenever I see demos of anything, I'm extremely unimpressed by that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

It works better if you can, if it's a demo that someone cooked up and is just showing you its worst.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

If you can interact with it, it's a bit better.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But even then, you're not done.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

You need actual product.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

It's going to face all these challenges when it comes in contact with reality and all these different pockets of behavior that need patching.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And so I think we're going to see all that stuff play out.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

It's a march of nines.