Andrew Caplin
speaker
81 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2026
last heard 11 Mar
Andrew Caplin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Well, you know, what we were looking for is to find out what skills, this is a wide open question, what skills help people work with an AI?
And we found that a way underrated skill is your ability to listen to what the AI tells you.
So for example, when you're looking at a medical image, if the AI says it's 95% likely
you know, to have a particular condition, you better be able to say, well, I knew anyway.
The doctors will often say, I knew, I'll overrule 100%.
That's rubbish.
You know, I know the answer.
And typically they're wrong.
Often they're miscalibrated.
They're way overconfident in their beliefs and they can't listen.
I don't know.
It doesn't pay in many branches that I've been observing.
I'm not sure it's been working in politics.
I don't think it works in medicine.
You have to appear very confident.
And it doesn't work, actually, in the false art of predicting the future under AI, in which everybody gets to be Nostradamus and tells you what's going to happen.
Well, it means that when you think
something is 70% likely, it's roughly objectively 70% likely.
When you're very confident that something is true, 95 to 100%, it had better be true 95 to 100% of the time.
Those are the kinds of things that can be checked and the evidence shows that many, many people and in many circumstances are 95% sure and 60% right.
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