Andrew Harker

speaker

37 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 18 Jul

Andrew Harker’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making. · PMI in Focus: High Frequency Signals for an Uncertain Business Environment · 18 Jul 2026 podcast

Hi there, Paul.

Yeah, looking forward to helping you pick up on some of those key themes that you mentioned there in the introduction and seeing how they've developed in the past couple of months since our last episode.

Yeah, just to pick up on you mentioning inflation there, Phil, and that period back in twenty twenty two, I think that feeds through to the stagflation theme that Paul mentioned in his introduction.

If we look at the latest numbers from the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI.

We see that actually rates of inflation eased off a bit in June as oil prices softened during the month.

And so if we think that maybe the peak of the recent spike in inflation was around April, May time, but then that will turn out to have been much lower than what we saw in twenty twenty two.

In fact the index point's probably about ten points lower than the peak back then.

So maybe that's not as bad as people feared at the start of the war in the Middle East?

Clearly in a bit of a different phase of the economic cycle than we were back in twenty twenty two when we were still in that sort of post COVID recovery.

What we're seeing now really is modeless growth in the global economy and that's often inflation.

So as I said, maybe not seeing the sort of stagflation environment that people may have feared.

But again, as you mentioned, Phil, there's still a fair amount of uncertainty in the economy and uncertainty as to how

events in the Middle East are gonna play out.

We've seen in recent days a lot of new information and new events coming in and so we will have to wait and see again the July data next month will give us an insight into how things are progressing there.

I think just stepping back.

Yeah, you've done a great job there, Paul, of highlighting the importance of the PMIs that we all know and love and why people need to pay attention to them.

Also, those official numbers and the longer term forecasting of those very important for people as well, as you mentioned.

So is there a way in which these two different types of data can be joined together?

I don't know, like a formidable central defensive partnership, such as some of those we've witnessed during the Football World Cup recently.

Yeah, it's interesting you mentioning tariffs there, Paul.

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