Anthony Pompliano

That grid stabilization

is a good narrative for Bitcoin miners because it means that they're being responsible kind of citizens and corporations in their local communities.

But more importantly is it explains why Bitcoin's hash rate came down.

And so I don't actually think the Bitcoin hash rate coming down has as big of an impact on price as people want it to be, but I think it's worth paying attention to.

And obviously we want to avoid any sort of issue.

That's why we have the Bitcoin kind of difficulty adjustment and many other aspects to make sure that we can continue to incentivize people to mine Bitcoin, keep the security of the network up.

So you've got all of these different components that are coming together.

Now, what I find interesting is that PolyMarket, the current odds on Bitcoin trading below $65,000 in 2026 is at 72%.

That's a pretty big number.

That means that more than half of people who are on PolyMarket, the prediction market, believe that Bitcoin will trade below $65,000.

Now, if you remember, I promised you that I was going to explain why this bear market may still be a bear market, but just not be like past bear markets.

And one part of it is that volatility we were talking about.

If Bitcoin was an 80 vol asset, now it's only 40.

It's a 50% reduction in volatility.

Then rather than get an 80% drawdown in price, you should get about a 40% drawdown in price, right?

Just kind of back of the napkin math.

If that's the case, then the drawdown that we've seen would be about the whole move, right?

Somewhere in that $75,000 range.

Now, I'm not claiming that that was the bottom.

I'm not claiming that I've got a strong opinion on this.