Anthony Pompliano

But I do think that if you get the volatility cut in half, then the drawdown should be about half.

And so we're somewhere in that ballpark now.

And I think the next couple of weeks will be very important to understand, is it likely to be a bigger drawdown?

Or should we just be able to take the volatility levels and then assign it to Bitcoin levels and

understand where that market bottom is likely to be now the other thing that i'm paying attention to here is bear markets can always get worse if there is stress in the market and where could that stress come from in the last cycle we saw a lot of lending there's re a lot of re-hypothecation of bitcoin and once you had some sort of issue then all of a sudden there's this contagion and it's off this kind of chain effect across all these different companies we saw companies go bankrupt we

We saw lots of funds come under immense duress.

There was all these issues that people had to try to work through.

And in that process, that led to lots of selling.

People wanted to sell Bitcoin to raise cash.

They wanted liquidity in US dollars.

And so all that sell pressure and capitulation drove the price lower and lower and lower until finally we had bottomed sub 20K in the last cycle.

Now, 70,000 to 20K was right in line with those same kind of 80% drawdowns.

one of the areas where i could see there being issues or stress showing up in the future are these bitcoin treasury companies now i'm intimately familiar with them right i've evaluated a lot of them we've got a public company that's got bitcoin on its balance sheet etc but what i think is important is not just oh there's public companies with bitcoin on their balance sheet it's more important to look at what are the terms of any debt that they have

And the reason why that's important is because if somebody becomes a forced seller in 2022, if they were a forced seller because of the contagion, or in 2026 because of some debt that they have that forces them to sell the Bitcoin at an inopportune time, then that is where that kind of capitulation sell pressure could come from.

Now, most of the debt in the public market is not going to be kind of aligned with that type of situation.

Instead, a lot of times there's longer duration debt.

There usually is some sort of convert component to it.

I don't see a lot of these companies right now taking out loans against their Bitcoin where there's liquidation type risk.

And so, so far in general, I don't see the risk that you'd be worried about in these companies.

But again, it's something to continue to pay attention to because if we get in a scenario where all of a sudden we have companies that are saying, listen, I have to sell the Bitcoin on my balance sheet because of some sort of debt covenant or some sort of liquidation risk, that would then lead to that kind of capitulation sell pressure and push the price lower and lower and lower.