Anton Korinek

speaker

180 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Feb 2026 last heard 27 Feb

Anton Korinek’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 1.

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Hard Fork · Is A.I. Eating the Labor Market? + The Latest on the Pentagon, OpenClaw and Alpha School · 27 Feb 2026 podcast

And a lot of the parts of the AI economy are not going to be reflected in GDP.

Yeah, I'll say two things about that.

The first one is that the story has not been written yet.

And there is a possibility that if we develop this technology in a really irresponsible way, that we could actually see some self-reproduction that takes off and that leads to triple-digit GDP growth numbers, if measured from the eyes of the AI.

But if we deploy the technology in a way that it makes the average person better off, then I think triple digit growth numbers are completely unrealistic.

They would lead to way too much disruption.

And then I'm not quite sure.

I think just 1% is definitely going to be too low to be realistic from my perspective.

In really optimistic scenarios, I think we could get to low double-digit growth rates.

And I should say that presupposes not just the cognitive AI, but full AI in the way that it's, for example, defined in the charter of OpenAI, where they see systems that are highly autonomous and that can perform most economically valuable work.

So that also includes a physical component that includes the robotics part.

Otherwise, it won't have that big of an effect of GDP because the majority of the economy isn't just sitting in front of a computer.

Yeah, so the one part that we already touched upon is the gap between the frontier capabilities and the actual implementation.

That part is real and that is very significant.

That's also something that is kind of bound to disappear over time, right?

But the second part is that

ultimately all the projections that we are hearing are extrapolations and people react very differently when they see how much the AI systems have improved let's say over the past year some people just naturally jump to the conclusion well let's extrapolate this and of course these systems are going to be way smarter than any human within just a small number of years and

Then there is another camp that says, well, what our brains are doing is so special that machines won't be able to replicate it for a very long time.

And these machines are going to kind of asymptote to somewhere below our brains capabilities.

And frankly, both is a speculative position.

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