ANZ Economist (Unknown)
speaker
31 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2025
last heard 21 Dec
ANZ Economist (Unknown)’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Dec 2025 with 1.
Appearances
Yes.
And I think the thing is, if you think back to last year, everyone was expecting that we would have seen a rate cut and it didn't come.
It came in many other economies, but not here in Australia.
So for us, one of the big shifts has been one, the fact that rate cuts are
are likely to come a bit later than what we were thinking early last year, but also too that we're not likely to see many rate cuts.
So I said before, just 225 basis point cuts this year.
That goes down to a few things.
One is the resilience in the labour market.
We know the labour market continues to be really strong at the moment.
The unemployment rate's very low by historical standards at 4%.
and people are continuing to get jobs.
So that's a big win for the RBA in many ways, because they have talked a lot about walking this narrow path where they're trying to get inflation down, but also ensure that people keep their jobs.
And they have seemed to walk that narrow path reasonably well.
The other thing too, is that we've got a range of cost of living relief that's been in effect
for about six months now, the most notable being the stage three tax cuts, of course.
And that is flowing through into a modest recovery in household spending.
So you've got people spending a bit more now, albeit they're still not spending a lot, but still
spending growth is continuing to improve and we think that that will be a trend that continues in 2025 and people are in their jobs.
So, ultimately, that does suggest that the RBA, when it does start cutting rates, it's really going to be tinkering rates, moving back to what we as economists call the neutral interest rate that neither stimulates the economy nor causes it to contract.
I think that's right.
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