Aswath Damodaran
speaker
1,201 appearances
7 recordings
3 series
first heard May 2025
last heard 7 Aug
Aswath Damodaran’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 2.
Appearances
No, I think China's just ahead of the game in seeing that the AI product and service market, this mythical market we keep talking about, is going to bifurcate.
There's going to be a premium component of the market, primarily business products and services, which is high margin.
And there's going to be a big component of the market, which is going to be a low margin, big scale market.
And China's clearly putting its stakes and saying,
That market we're going to go after because we're equipped to go after it.
So I think China in many ways is taking a look at that end game playing out.
And I think the real question is in that end game.
So let's play it out.
Let's suppose in the end game, the AI product and service market turns out to be looked, let's play along with the AI optimists.
Let's say it's six billion, eight billion, nine billion, even ten billion.
That by itself doesn't create valuable companies because you haven't told me much about the business models that will be used to generate money in that market.
If ninety percent of that market is low margin, large scale, you could be a ten bit trillion dollar market.
But the companies in that market are not going to make much money on those trillions of dollars because your margins are going to be single-digit margins.
Now, one of the most revealing components of the Anthropic success story was how much it costs Anthropic to deliver the products and services that they charge $6,000 an hour for.
Right?
It's not, this isn't software where the unit economics are amazing.
The unit economics are struggling in a business that's still evolving.
I think the question though is what's the catalyst that's going to create a major correction?
This might be be one of those things where you get multiple catalysts and corrections along the way.
Rather than a big time one, you know, you know, like the two like the dot-com bus.
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