Austan (Austan) Goolsbee

speaker

656 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 15 Jul

Austan (Austan) Goolsbee’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart · The Fed, Unreserved with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee · 15 Jul 2026 podcast

But there are a lot of things that are outside the Fed's purview.

They are downstream of the overnight interest rate.

So when the Fed does things, it does affect those.

But one of the most important things that affects mortgage rates or 30-year treasury rates or all of this, if we get down in the weeds, are what do people think the inflation rate is going to be over the next 30 years?

Wait, are people really trying to figure that out?

Over 30 years, they're trying to figure out the inflation rate.

Yeah, whoever owns the 30-year mortgage that you got,

that person cares a lot about what inflation is going to be over the next 30 years.

Because if they lend to you at 6% and then inflation is going to be 9% for 30 years, they're going to lose money every year for the entire time.

So-

The Fed does a thing on these shorter rates that influences longer rates, but other influences include what do people think are going to be inflation?

How do people think growth is going to be?

What do they think is going to be productivity?

All of this stuff.

These are all projections.

All of those involve a projection.

Yeah, I'm more on the art science.

I think you're right that it's art science.

And most researcher, academic kind of economists basically don't think forecasting is doable.

They think it's extremely hard.

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